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<br />Demographic data for the school impact fees study are summarized in Figure 5.
<br />According to the recommended projections, the average housing increase in the
<br />Orange County School district will be 481 units per year from 2001 to 2011. The
<br />Orange County School District is anticipating an ADM increase of approximately
<br />156 public school students per year.
<br />In the Chapel Hill -Carrboro School District, the average housing increase is
<br />expected to be 721 units per year from 2001 to 2011. Chapel Hill -Carrboro School
<br />District anticipates an ADM increase of approximately 285 public school students
<br />per year.
<br />Figure 5 -Detailed Development Projections
<br />Orange County, NC 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2070 2011
<br />Crcmulatiue
<br />Population in Households 107,217 109,560 111,902 114,244 116,5$fi 118,92$ 121,271 123,613 125,955 128,297 130,639
<br />Population in Group Quarters* 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9 000 9,000
<br />Total Population 116,217 118,560 120,902 123,244 125,586 127,928 130,271 132,613 134,955 137,297 139,639
<br />Persons Per Household 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34
<br />~Iouseholds 45,819 46,820 47,821 48,822 49,823 50,824 51,825 52,826 53,827 54,828 55,829
<br />Residential Vacancy bate 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
<br />Housing Units 5b,000 56,201 57,403 58,604. 59,806 61,007 62,209 63,410 64,612 65,813 67,015
<br />Hsg Units in CHC Sch District 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60°~ 60% 60% 60%
<br />Orange Co. District Hsg Units 22,000 22,481 22,961 23,442 23,922 24,403 24,884 25,364 25,845 26,325 26,806
<br />Chapel Hill -Carrboro Hsg Units 33,000 33,721 34,442 35,163 35,884 36,604 37,325 35,046 38,767 39,488 40,209
<br />Orange Co. District ADM 6,254 6,410 6,567 6,723 6,879 7,036 7,192 7,348 7,505 7,661 7,818
<br />Chapel Hill -Carrboro ADM 9 587 9 743 9,898 10,216 10 534 10 852 11 170 11 488 11 806 12 124 12 442
<br />TotalAv Dail Membershi 15,841 16,153 16,465 16,939 17,413 17,8$8 18,362 18,836 19,311 19,785 20,259
<br />2oor-2or~
<br />lnnual Increase 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-OS 08-09 09-10 Aug Ani
<br />dotal Population 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,34:
<br />)range Co. District Hsg Units 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 48.
<br />.hapel Hill -Carrboro Hsg Units Tll 721 721 721 721 721 721 721 721 72'.
<br />)range Co. District ADM 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 15~
<br />;hapel Hill -Carrboro ADM 156 156 318 318 318 318 31$ 318 318 28
<br />1990 group quarters population rounded to thousands.
<br />Current housing unit and ADM data by school district were used to calibrate
<br />student generation rates by type of housing. TA started with 1990 census data on
<br />public school students by units in structure, as shown in Figure 6. This custom,
<br />cross tabulation was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. It is important to note
<br />that the student generation rates shown at the bottom of the table are based on the
<br />total number of housing units, not households (i.e., occupied units). The multipliers
<br />7
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