|
~~~
<br />,.
<br />The same process was Followed to derive alternative. ADM projections for the Chapel
<br />Hill -Carrboro School District. Due to the unusually high increase in student
<br />membership in 2001, TA recommends the linear trend extrapolation alternative, as
<br />shown in Figure 4.
<br />Annual Base 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg
<br />Change Value actual => projection years (x) _> pnl
<br /> (h) McShod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Inc
<br />4.2% 9,5$7 Exponential 7,811 S,D49 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,587 9,990 10,409 10,846 11,302 11,777 12,271 12,787 13,324 13,883 14,4s$ 488
<br />4.5% 9,587 Linear 7,811 8,049 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,587 10,018 10,450 10,881 11,313 11,744 12,175 12,607 13,038 13,470 13,901 431
<br />5.0% 9,587 Logarithmic 7,811 8,049 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,5$7 9,919 10,114 10,252 10,358 10,446 10,520 10,584 10,640 10,691 10,736 115
<br />3.2% Lnr Trend Extrap*
<br />_ 7 811 8 049 8 181 8 476 8 700 9 587 9,743 9,898 10,216 10,534 10,$52 11,170 11,488 11,806 12,124 12,442 285
<br />
<br />~ ~_,.._..... W._.
<br />Y
<br />u ~
<br /> !Projection Alternatives for Chapel Hill -
<br />Carrboro District ~
<br />i
<br />~i ls,ooo
<br />I
<br />14,000
<br />12,000
<br />10,000
<br />8,000
<br />s,ooo
<br />4,000
<br />2,000
<br />0
<br />~~ ~-Exponential
<br />~..~ ~'' Linear
<br />----__._.~._-____.~........___. ._._._....._ ~ -~ Logarithmic
<br />_.-__ -x-Lnr Trend Extrap*
<br />Figure 4 -- Chapel Hill -Carrboro School District ADM
<br />* The linear trend extrapolation alternative is recommended.
<br />1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
<br />6
<br />
|