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<br />
<br />TA obtained 1996 through 2000 ADM data from the Official Statement for the sale
<br />of General Obligation Bonds on 4/4/00. School year 200-2001 ADM data were
<br />provided by the Orange County and Chapel Hill - Carrboro School Districts. Figure
<br />3 provides alternative ADM projections for the Orange County School District. TA
<br />used the linear alternative in the school impact fee calculations.
<br />Figure 3 -Orange County School District ADM
<br />~~~
<br />Annnal Hase 1886 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg
<br />Change Value actual =~ projection years (x) =7 Anl
<br /> (b) ~p~ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Inc
<br />2.4"/0 6,254 Exponential 5,581 5,818 5,983 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,404 6,558 6,715 6,876 7,041 7,210 7,383 7,561 7,742 7,928 167
<br />2.5% 6,254 Linear (recommended) 5,561 5,918 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,41D 6,567 6,723 6,879 7,038 7,182 7,348 7,505 7,661 7,818 156
<br />5.0% 6,254 Logarithmic 5,561 5,91$ 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,471 6,598 6,687 6,757 6,814 6,862 6,904 6,941 6,974 7,004 75
<br />1.9% Lnr Trend Extrap 5,561 5,918 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,423 6,546 6,668 6,791 6,914. 7,036 7,159 7,2$1 7,404 7,526 127
<br />--_~.~ ____._T~....._..._-__....`_..._.,.~_.__......_
<br />I1'rojection Alternatives for Orange County Distric~
<br />s,oao
<br />s,ooo
<br />7,000
<br />s,ooD
<br />5,000
<br />4,ooa
<br />3,DOD
<br />I z,ooa
<br />I,DOD
<br />0
<br />~ Exponential
<br />~-- Linear (recommended) I'
<br />. -~ Logarithmic
<br />i
<br />-Lnr Trend Extrap ,
<br />lass lss7 lssa lass 2000 2aoz 2002 2003 2004 zoos zoos zoo? zoos zoos zolo zall
<br />5
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