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~~~~ <br />MEMORANDUM <br />T0: Craig Benedict, Planning Director <br />Orange County, North Carolina <br />FROM: Tischler & Associates, Inc. <br />DATE: February 12, 2001 <br />SUBJECT: Student Generation Rates and Projections <br />This memorandum documents the demographic data and development <br />projections that will be used by Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) in the <br />school impact fee study. Figure 1 summarizes population, housing unit <br />and countywide public school student growth, measured by Average <br />Daily Membership (ADM). According to these projections, population <br />is expected to increase at a rate of approximately 2.0% per year, while <br />countywide ADM increases at a rate of 2.8% per year. <br />The population data shown below includes people living in group- <br />quarters, such as university students in dormitories. Because <br />population in group-quarters is not relevant to the school impact fee <br />calculations, TA held constant the 1990 census figure of approximately <br />9,000 people living in group-quarters (rounded to thousands). The <br />population projection shown in Figure 1 is derived using a linear <br />growth formula and the average annual population growth rate from <br />1990 to 1999. A 1999 population estimate of 11,533 was obtained from <br />the U.S. Census Bureau. <br />Based on building permit records and a field survey of apartment <br />units, the Orange County Planning Department estimates there are <br />approximately 22,000 housing units in the Orange County School <br />District and 33,000 housing units in the Chapel Hill - Carrboro <br />District. Using this base data, TA converted future year population <br />projections into housing unit and household data. <br />