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9 <br /> 2019 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br /> I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br /> A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. I <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Elementary 105% 105% <br /> Middle 107% 107% <br /> High 110% 110% <br /> B. Building Capacity and Membership ..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from <br /> Prior Year Prior Year <br /> Elementary 5664 5471 (51) 3361 3205 22 <br /> Middle 2944 2933 100 2166 1779 49 <br /> High 3875 3932 5 2439 2349 (96) <br /> C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg.17 <br /> II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br /> A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 <br /> The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. <br /> C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2018-19 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2018-19 in that given year.The second column for each year <br /> includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the <br /> actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2018-19 Membership <br /> Actual2018 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 5471 6021 H550 5795 H324 5622 H151 5655 H184 5509 H38 <br /> Middle 2933 3063 H130 3009 H76 2915 L18 2898 L35 2889 L44 <br /> High 3932 4011 H79 3920 L12 3842 L90 3846 L86 3915 L17 <br /> i <br />