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48 <br /> Section II <br /> school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential development than in the <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of new families in older, <br /> existing housing stock. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages <br /> for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an <br /> additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar <br /> to last year's projections. <br /> Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs <br /> continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. <br /> Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level will continue to be reviewed <br /> and discussed in the coming year. <br /> Middle <br /> The previous year(2017-18)projections for November 2018 for this level were overestimated by <br /> 6 students. The actual membership increased by 49 students. Over the previous ten years, <br /> growth has varied widely and includes decreases in student membership in four of the ten years. <br /> Growth rates during this period have ranged from -2.20%to+4.00%. The district's third Middle <br /> School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an additional <br /> Middle School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year's <br /> projections. <br /> High School <br /> The previous year(2017-18)projections for November 2018 for this level were overestimated by <br /> 47 students. The actual membership decreased by 96 students. Over the previous ten years, <br /> growth has varied and includes decreases for the last three school years and this year. Growth <br /> rates during this period ranged from -1.32%to 4.58%. In 2011-12 student membership increased <br /> by 32 while capacity decreased by 199 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. <br /> Department of Public Instruction(DPI) study. Similar to last year's projections, the need for <br /> additional capacity at Cedar Ridge High School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection <br /> period. However, to address public safety concerns with the current high school capacity <br /> exceeding the 100%threshold, Orange County Schools is in preliminary planning stages to <br /> expand Cedar Ridge High School from initial capacity of 1,000 students to1,500 students for the <br /> 2021-22 school year. <br /> 32 <br />