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42 <br /> Section II Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2018-19) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2018-2019 School Year (November 15, 2018) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • The projections were all low, ranging from 4 students to 77 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 44 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 22 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 40 students below to 43 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 6 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 49 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> High School Level <br /> • The majority of projections were high, ranging from 5 students to 111 students above <br /> actual membership. One projection was 9 students below actual membership. On <br /> average, the projections were 47 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 96 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 40 students below to <br /> 66 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 25 students, which is the sum of+22 at <br /> Elementary, +49 at Middle, and -96 at High. <br /> 26 <br />