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40 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2017-18) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2017-2018 School Year (November 15, 2017) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high ranging from 53 students to 119 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 83 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 45 students between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 26 students below to 60 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 14 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 4 students between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all low, ranging from 77 to 115 students below actual membership. On <br /> average, the projections were 95 students lower than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 165 students between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The total of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 61 students below to <br /> 55 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 2 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 124 students, which is the sum of-45 at <br /> Elementary, +4 at Middle, and +165 at High. <br /> 24 <br />