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38 <br /> Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2017-18) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2017-2018 School Year (November 15, 2017) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • The projections were all high, ranging from 5 students to 152 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 70 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 110 students between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • The projections were all high, ranging from 14 students to 33 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 21 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 6 students between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 27 to 48 students above actual membership. On <br /> average, the projections were 35 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 1 student between November 15, 2016 and <br /> November 15, 2017. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 62 to 200 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 126 students higher than <br /> the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 105 students, which is the sum of-110 at <br /> Elementary, +6 at Middle, and -1 at High. <br /> 22 <br />