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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2018-19 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2018-2019 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2018-19 Membership <br /> Actual2018 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3205 3668 H463 3226 H21 3319 H114 3235 H30 3161 L44 <br /> Middle 1779 1933 H154 1837 H58 1830 H51 1811 H32 1785 H6 <br /> High 2349 2534 H185 2547 H198 2517 H168 2439 H90 2396 H47 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 38 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 <br /> Made: <br /> Elementary 1.11% 0.92% 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.55% 0.80% 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% <br /> Middle 1.15% 0.82% 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% 0.09% 0.67% 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% <br /> High 1.22% 0.93% 0.72% 0% 0.16% 0.39% 0.56% 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 41 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 96.6%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive (average-0.56%per year compared to 0.67% over the past 10 <br /> years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 99.6%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive (average -0.19% compared to an average of 0.78% over the past <br /> 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 101.5%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average-0.16% compared to 0.79% over the past 10 years). <br /> ii <br />