Minutes 01-22-2019 Regular Meeting

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21 Commissioner McKee asked if Patrick McDonough could identify the number of acres, within the 1361 acres, that are in an environmental area upon which one cannot build. Patrick McDonough said he does not have that exact number. He said most of the development is on land that the various planning staffs believed was developable, or where there is existing development. Commissioner McKee asked if the acreage that is owned by UNC or other non-profits, and thus will not generate profit, have been deducted from the 1361 acres. Patrick McDonough said the study did not look consider things "in and out" by acres. Commissioner McKee said it is critical to know how many acres upon which there can be development. Patrick McDonough said for Mason Farm Road/UNC hospital the answer is zero. He said at other stations one must consider the status of the acreage. He said generally the re- developable parcels are mostly parcels on private land. Patrick McDonough said the answer in the final 30 years will likely turn to a discussion of payment in lieu of taxes. Commissioner McKee said he is trying to get at is how much value per acre has to occur for the project to be net positive. He asked how much revenue is 1360 acres supposed to generate. Patrick McDonough said the 1360 acreage is a net new property value of$3.3-4.5 billion, and net new annual tax revenue up and down the line of$45-60 million Commissioner McKee said each acre is going to have to generate $3.3 million, and his point is that he does not trust the figures. Commissioner McKee said in 2014, there was a cost-benefit analysis study in Chapel Hill of the Blue Hill district that showed there was not net positive revenue for 20 years out. He said he wants to know when a net positive result can be expected. He said the County has a lot of needs that will not be paid for by the transit tax, and all of the cost that will occur will be eaten up by the $3.3-4.5 billion. Patrick McDonough referred page A-110 in the appendix, which has a table that begins with Orange County. He said the bottom line of this table is the net new accumulated tax revenue. He said there is a separate table to Chapel Hill on the next page. He said this is roughly what Gateway Planning thinks the revenue flow will be over that time, and depending on to what it is compared in infrastructure, the return of investment (ROI) may seem positive or not good enough. Commissioner McKee said his concern is exactly what is being discussed. He said from 2018-2037 it may be possible to hit the $13.5 million new revenue, but if the infrastructure costs and associated costs for affordable housing, bridges, lift stations, etc. exceed this amount then it is not possible to be net positive. Patrick McDonough said part of the answer depends on which infrastructure gets prioritized, and where it was in the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP). He said there are infrastructure recommendations, but there is no timeline, and it is hard to do the cost side without a timeline. He said it is all worth discussion. Commissioner Greene said she is unclear about the $3.5 billion, to which Commissioner McKee referred. Commissioner McKee said the net new property value on the 1361 acres. Commissioner Marcoplos said Glenwood Elementary School (ES) sits near a station and the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools District (CHCCS) is planning on holding on to the school in anticipation of the money that will be made from the higher cost land at the stations, and the potential for development. He asked if this type of property is considered a non-profit, or undevelopable land. Staff member from GoTriangle said Glenwood ES is not considered part of the re- developable land. He said the tax revenue is based on the property tax base that exists today,