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19 <br /> • Zoning changes allow more intense development + new AH density bonus (Zoning) <br /> • New Development yields tax revenue for community goals (Economic Development) <br /> • Leadership allocates some of that revenue towards affordable housing/other community <br /> goals (Community Priorities) <br /> Net New Tax Revenue By Jurisdiction (graph) <br /> Discussion <br /> A Conservative Market Study <br /> • Triangle Region Has Grown 3% - 5% per year over past 30 years <br /> • Durham / Chapel Hill has historically captured 20% —25% of that growth <br /> A Conservative Market Study: Multifamily (graph) <br /> A Conservative Market Study: Office (graph) <br /> Final Thought: Paris & Chicago (picture) <br /> PUBLIC COMMENT: <br /> Julie McClintock said she sent a letter to Board of County Commissioners earlier, the <br /> main point of which is the importance of accurate information for the FTA, the Board, and the <br /> public. She reviewed the letter, which highlighted concerns that have been raised regarding <br /> growth projections. She said it is easy to be seduced by the prospect of 1360 acres that are <br /> ripe for development, but many of the acres are on UNC property, and thus not-taxable. She <br /> said many of the acres are in wetlands, and are undevelopable. She also noted that 15-501 is <br /> three years away from gridlock, which she can back up with studies that have been completed. <br /> She said in the last ten years of primary residential growth in Chapel Hill, the cost of town <br /> government services has risen by an average of 3.7%, while property tax revenues only rose by <br /> an average of 1.3%. <br /> Commissioner Bedford referred to the slide with the net new tax revenue by jurisdiction, <br /> and asked if"net" could be defined. <br /> Patrick McDonough said there is a baseline property value based on 2017 values, and a <br /> "what if nothing happens" (the property gains in value, but does not redevelop over time), which <br /> gets inflated out into the future. He said the "net new" is what happens if the property <br /> redevelops, and has a new tax value, but the value of that which was taken away is also <br /> subtracted. He said an example is removing a one story office building and replacing it with a <br /> four story office building; the value of the one story building would be subtracted from the value <br /> of the four story building, and be compared to the figures from the "what if nothing happened" <br /> scenario. <br /> Commissioner Bedford clarified that these do not include the cost of the sewage pump, <br /> the bridge over 15-501, EMS, or any other costs associated with development. <br /> Patrick McDonough said the whole point of having the critical infrastructure <br /> recommendations in the report is acknowledging exactly Commissioner Bedford's point. He <br /> said there are going to be other pieces of infrastructure that will be needed to make these fully <br /> functioning communities. He said the report makes recommendations on infrastructure that <br /> would have to be paid for. <br />