Agenda 8-a - Minutes - Laserfiche WebLink

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21 1 Commissioner McKee referred to the acreage, and said the first number is 7026 acres, 2 which is the amount within the concentric circles in the station areas. He asked if this is correct. 3 Patrick McDonough referred to the Gateway station, and said there is a red line around 4 the station. He said a similar boundary is shown at every station. He said the sum of all of 5 these red line areas is 7026 acres. 6 Commissioner McKee said that 7026 total acreage is Durham and Orange Counties 7 combined. 8 Patrick McDonough said that is correct. 9 Commissioner McKee said of that total, 1361 is the total acreage in Durham and Orange 10 Counties that is developable or re-developable. He asked if that is correct. 11 Patrick McDonough said it is both, and it depends on the status of the land as to 12 whether it is developable or re-developable. He said the local planning departments would 13 provide insight into these decisions. 14 Commissioner McKee asked if Patrick McDonough could identify the number of acres, 15 within the 1361 acres, that are in an environmental area upon which one cannot build. 16 Patrick McDonough said he does not have that exact number. He said most of the 17 development is on land that the various planning staffs believed was developable, or where 18 there is existing development. 19 Commissioner McKee asked if the acreage that is owned by UNC or other non-profits, 20 and thus will not generate profit, have been deducted from the 1361 acres. 21 Patrick McDonough said the study did not look consider things "in and out" by acres. 22 Commissioner McKee said it is critical to know how many acres upon which there can 23 be development. 24 Patrick McDonough said for Mason Farm Road/UNC hospital the answer is zero. He 25 said at other stations one must consider the status of the acreage. He said generally the re- 26 developable parcels are mostly parcels on private land. 27 Patrick McDonough said the answer in the final 30 years will likely turn to a discussion of 28 payment in lieu of taxes. 29 Commissioner McKee said he is trying to get at is how much value per acre has to occur 30 for the project to be net positive. He asked how much revenue is 1360 acres supposed to 31 generate. 32 Patrick McDonough said the 1360 acreage is a net new property value of$3.3-4.5 33 billion, and net new annual tax revenue up and down the line of$45-60 million 34 Commissioner McKee said each acre is going to have to generate $3.3 million, and his 35 point is that he does not trust the figures. 36 Commissioner McKee said in 2014, there was a cost-benefit analysis study in Chapel 37 Hill of the Blue Hill district that showed there was not net positive revenue for 20 years out. He 38 said he wants to know when a net positive result can be expected. He said the County has a lot 39 of needs that will not be paid for by the transit tax, and all of the cost that will occur will be eaten 40 up by the $3.3-4.5 billion. 41 Patrick McDonough referred page A-110 in the appendix, which has a table that begins 42 with Orange County. He said the bottom line of this table is the net new accumulated tax 43 revenue. He said there is a separate table to Chapel Hill on the next page. He said this is 44 roughly what Gateway Planning thinks the revenue flow will be over that time, and depending 45 on to what it is compared in infrastructure, the return of investment (ROI) may seem positive or 46 not good enough. 47 Commissioner McKee said his concern is exactly what is being discussed. He said from 48 2018-2037 it may be possible to hit the $13.5 million new revenue, but if the infrastructure costs 49 and associated costs for affordable housing, bridges, lift stations, etc. exceed this amount then 50 it is not possible to be net positive.