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Methodology of Analysis The first step in preparing the Analysis was to make projections about the type , size, build- out time , and location of new development in the Hillsborough area. Spreadsheets are included in this analysis that project residential and non-residential development . Those projections were prepared by the Planning Director and were based on a wide variety of factors . Assumptions were then made for water usage based on the type of developments . Water use assumptions were based on local surveys conducted by the staff, national averages , and comparisons with other systems/developments . This data provided a yearly projection of water demands in addition to current usage levels through Fiscal Year 2010 . The data is also presented on the map included in this document. The methodology for projecting water availability and Capital Facility Fees is shown on attachments within this document. Capacity to Accommodate Future Growth To help create a policy identifying the maximum limit for Hillsborough ' s water system capacity, the staff recommends that an ultimate limit of 4 . 13 mgd (million gallons per day) be established as the Town ' s "line of demarcation" for maximum responsible growth . The 4 . 13 mgd limit is suggested since it represents the amount of water likely to be available to Hillsborough water customers during a Stage 5 or severe drought situation in 2010 , this includes water provided from Phases 1 and 2 of the Reservoir. Hillsborough has never reached a Stage 5 limit, but has been close . Stage 6 events are infrequent and planning for such extreme situations may prove to be practically, operationally, and financially unreasonable . To use a figure higher than 4 . 13 mgd risks putting Hillsborough in the same situation it faces today, dependency on outside systems to supplement a lack of water supply during drought situations . When surpluses of water exist, due to the need to maintain an adequate "buffer ' for droughts , the Town will be in the position to sell water to other systems . Sales of outside water should be earmarked to fund retirement of long- term debt on the Water Plant expansion and Reservoir. Projected Development in Hillsborough The "development and water usage" scenario prepared as part of this analysis projects that the Town ' s daily water use could be 4 . 1 mgd in as little as ten years . If the ultimate growth limit is established as 4. 13 mgd and since the Development Forecast projects that water consumption will be 4. 1 mQd in FY2010, then the Town of Hillsborough could reach maximum build-out in just ten years. Reaching the "safe limit" of the Town ' s projected water supply by FY2010 , could gt occur sooner or later depending on the economy, Board adopted policies , local growth/development rates , and intensity of water users allowed connection to the Hillsborough system . The possibility of the Town ' s projected water capacity being used up by FY2010 is cause for the Board to give intense thought to how, when, where , why, and what type of development it wants in Hillsborough ' s future . Once this capacity is used up Hillsborough will have to live with the development that it exists in Town at that time . The possibility of impending "build- out" occurring so soon (even if it happens 25 years) , places a premium on the Town making well- informed and well thought-out planning decisions in order to control Hillsborough ' s future . Water Treatment Plant Expansion and Phase 2 Reservoir Expansion The Development and Water Usage Scenario projects that the Phase 2 Reservoir expansion needs to be completed and on- line by June 30 , 2004 to avoid the likelihood of having to purchase Page 2