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Compiled by : Orange County Budget Office
<br /> 01 /29/07
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections (' ) (4) Capacity Figures revised by Planning Dept . on 5/22/07
<br /> Elementary
<br /> School Year 2000 =01 2001 -02 2002-03 2003=04 2004=05 12005=06 12006=07 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009-10 2010 -11 2011 =12 2012A3 201344 2014=15 2015 =16 201647
<br /> Actual 41444 41474 41551 1 4 ,692 1 4 ,695 1 41879 1 4 , 980
<br /> Tischler 5 , 103 51227 5 ,350 5 ,473 51596 51719 5 ,842 53965 61088 61211
<br /> OC Planning 51079 51170 51253 51359 51465 51597 51729 51863 50997 6 , 132
<br /> 10 Year Growth 5 , 233 51429 51597 51810 52945 61005 61065 61126 61187 69249
<br /> 5 Year Growth 51157 51290 51405 5 ,569 51673 51729 51787 51845 50903 51962
<br /> 3 Year Growth 5 , 138 1 5250 51342 51494 57590 51646 51702 51759 51817 51875
<br /> Average 57142 51273 5$ 89 5$ 41 51654 52739 51825 59912 51998 69086
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) 30 77 141 3 184 101 162 131 116 152 113 85 86 87 87 87
<br /> Capacity - 100 % Level of Service ( LOS) 4 , 302 41302 4 , 302 4,921 4 , 921 43921 4, 921 5 , 506 5 , 244 53244 5 , 244 53244 51244 51244 51244 5 , 244
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100 % LOS 142 172 24 (229 ) (226) (42 ) 59 221 (233) 5 297 410 495 581 668 754 842
<br /> Capacity - 105% Level of Service ( LOS) 49517 4, 517 43517 59167 51167 51167 5, 167 5 , 167 1 50781 51506 5,506 51506 5 , 506 5 , 506 51506 5,506 5 , 506
<br /> Number of Students, Actual and Projected , Over (Under) 105% LOS 1 ( 73 ) 3 ) 1 34 1 (475 ) (472 ) ( 288 ) ( 187 ) (25 ) ( 508 ) ( 117 ) 5 148 233 319 405 492 580
<br /> Actual - % Level of Service 10 ° 104 . 0 % 105 . 8 % 95 . 3% 95 .4% 99 . 1 % 101 . 2%
<br /> Average - % Level of Service 104 .5% 95 * 8 % 1 102 , 8 % 1 105 . 7 % #% J 109 .4% 111 . 1 % 112 . 7% 114 . 4% 116. 1
<br /> AnnualStudent row Rate 0 . 68 % 1 .72 % 3o10 % J 0.06% 1 3.920/6 2.07% 3.25% 2.55% 2.20% 2 .81 % 2.040/6 1 .51 % 1 .49% 1 .49% 1 .47% 1 .46%
<br /> Elementary # 9 opens in fall 2003 with additional 619 seats Per November 15, 2005 Certified Capacity Calculations, CHCCS projects Elementary # 10 opening for school year 2008-09 . In accordance
<br /> with BOCC adopted School Construction Standards, elementary school capacity totals 600 students.
<br /> Important Note : Per 2005 agreement of School Collaboration Work Group, Grades K-3 class size reduced from 1@23 to 1 : 21
<br /> the year after Elementary # 10 opens (to allow for prior Legislative Action re : reduced class size) and School Construction
<br /> Standards for the Elementary level will have a capacity of 585 students. (The new capacity of 585 students is reflected in
<br /> the capacity numbers shown ) .
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections
<br /> Middle
<br /> School Year 2000 =01 2001 -02 2002 =03 2003=04 2004-05 2005 =06 2006-07 2007 -08 2008 =09 2009-10 12011 =12 2012A3 201344 12014=15 12015 =16 201647
<br /> Actual 21326 21540 2 ,608 21612 21560 2 ,572 1 21592
<br /> Tischler 21656 21720 21784 23848 21913 21977 31041 31105 31169 3 , 233
<br /> OC Planning rg21670 21742 21810 21855 21899 21943 21986 3 , 029 3 ,072 31114
<br /> 10 Year Growth 21605 29683 21806 23905 31018 31177 31382 3 , 502 30537 31572
<br /> 5 Year Growth 21588 2 , 636 2 , 720 21775 21843 2 ,939 31087 3 , 170 3 ,201 31233
<br /> 3 Year Growth 21593 21649 21740 21784 21837 2 ,909 31045 31120 31151 31182
<br /> Average 2 ,622 21686 21772 21833 27902 21989 33108 31185 33226 3 , 267
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) 214 68 4 (52) 12 20 30 64 86 61 69 87 119 77 41 41
<br /> Capacity 100 % Level of Service 23108 21840 2,840 21840 21840 21840 2 , 840 21840 2 , 840 21840 2 , 840 2 , 840 2 , 840 2 , 840 21840 23840 2 , 840
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100% LOS 218 (232 ) (228 ) (280 ) IL 1 62 149 268 345 386 427
<br /> 107 % Level of Service 23256 33039 31039 31039 31039 31039 3 ,039 31039 3 , 039 35039 3 , 039 3 , 039 39039 3,039 31039 3 ,039 33039
<br /> Number of Students, Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 107 % LOS 70 (479) (467 ) (447 ) (416 ) 69 146 187 228
<br /> Actual - % Level of Service 1 110 . 3% 1 89 , 4 % 1 91 . 8 % 1 92 . 0 % 9061 % 1 90 . 6 % 91 . 3%
<br /> Average - % Level of Service 92 , 3% 1 94 , 6 % 1 97 . 6 % 1 99 , 8 % 1 102 , 2 % 1 105 . 2 % 1 109 ,4 % 1 112 . 2 % 1 113 . 6% 115 . 0 %
<br /> JAnnual Studentrow a e 9.20% 2 .68% 0015% 1 =11 699% 1 0 .47% 0.78% 1 . 17% 2 .43% 3 .20 % 2 .22% 2 .42 % 3 .00 % 3.99% 2 .48% la28 % 1 1 .26%
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections
<br /> High
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001 =02 2002 -03 2003-04 2004=05 2005 =06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013-14 2014-15 t4lt37O
<br /> t555
<br /> iY389
<br /> Actual 2 ,815 2 ,963 31162 39330 3 ,422 31514 3 ,520
<br /> Tischler 3 ,606 31693 31780 31867 31954 41041 41128 41215
<br /> OC Planning 3 ,613 3 , 706 3 , 794 3 ,883 3 ,973 4 ,037 4 , 101 4 , 165
<br /> 10 Year Growth 3 ,589 31621 3 , 587 3 , 605 31708 31848 3 , 942 41143 l
<br /> 5 Year Growth 3 ,616 3 , 653 3 , 616 3 , 628 3 ,692 3 , 784 3 , 827 3 ,963 4 , 106 4 ,224 N
<br /> 3 Year Growth 3 ,570 31569 31517 31538 31607 3 , 708 3 , 740 31855 31974 41065 O
<br /> Average 3 , 599 3 ,648 31659 39704 35787 35884 31948 49068 4, 196 49305 d �.
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) 148 199 168 92 92 6 79 50 10 45 83 97 64 121 128 109
<br /> Capacity - 100 % Level of Service 30035 33035 31035 3 , 035 31035 39035 31035 33835 3 , 835 31835 39835 39835 31835 3 , 835 3 ,835 3 , 835 31835
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100 % LOS (220 ) 6 :° ; 127 295 387 479 485 (236) t . 7 ` ( 131 ) 49 113 233 361 470 J
<br /> 110 % Level of Service 3,339 31339 31339 31339 39339 3 , 339 39339 49219 219 1 43219 1 4,219 1 41219 41219 4 , 219 4,219 1 4,219 41219
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 110% LOS (524) (376 ) l 83 176 182 ( 620 ) ( 0 ) ( 560 ) ( 514) ( 432 ) ( 335) (271 ) ( 150 ) ( 23) 86
<br /> L
<br /> - % Level of Service 92 .8 % 97 . 6% 104 . 2 % 109 . 7 % 112 . 8 % 115 . 8 % 116 . 0 %
<br /> e - % Level of Service 93 . 8 % 95 . 1 % 95 . 4 % 96 . 6% 98 . 7% 101 . 3% 102 .9% 106. 1 % 109 . 4% 112.3%
<br /> u ent Growth Rate 5.26% 6 .72% 5 .31 % 2 .76% 2 .69% 0.17% 2 .24% 1 . 36 % 0 .29% 1 .24% 2 .23% 2 .56% 1 .65% 3.06% 3 . 14% .39°7a J
<br /> Carrboro High School opens in fall 2007 with 800 additional seats
<br /> indicates first year that district surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service
<br /> (1 ) It is important to note that this reflects the November 15, 2006 date of membership as outlined in by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance . It does not include CHCCS students attending the Hospital School .
<br /> (2) The Tischler Model provides for the " Linear Method " of projections for both CHCCS and OCS . Original projections used in prior years projection models included the "Linear Extrapolation Method " for CHCCS .
<br /> (3) Annual growth rate calculated using actual membership for years 2000-01 through 2006-07 and average membership for years 2006-07 through 2016-17.
<br /> (4) Class sizes for grades K-3 = 1 : 23 for school years 2006-07 and 2007-08 . In accordance with 2005 School Collaboration Work Group direction , with planned opening of CHCCS Elementary #10 in school year 2008-09 , K-3 class sizes for school years 2008-09 through 2015- 16 reflect 1 : 21 as directed by past State legislative action . This
<br /> results in CHCCS elementary capacity reduction (district wide) of 275 seats (decreasing from 5 , 797 [105% LOS @ 1 : 23 class size] to 5 ,522 [105% LOS @ 1 : 21 class size] ) . Class size reduction results in need for CHCCS Elementary # 11 to come online in school year 2011 -12 ( 1 : 21 ratio) compared to 2014- 15 ( 1 : 21 ratio) .
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