Agenda - 06-12-2007-4ee revised SAPFO report 2007

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Section II Orange County School District Elementary The previous year (2005 ) projection for November 2006 at this level was underestimated by 6 students . The actual membership increased by 66 students . Over the previous six(6) years , this level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from - 185 to + 8 to +44 to +71 to — 10 to + 66 students a year . This created a historical base of negative growth which was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth projections . In the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to development than in the Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of new families in older, regentrified housing stock. Therefore , development activity should be monitored off- line as a harbinger to student growth on a more equal level to historically based mathematical models . The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10 -year projection period . However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough . Middle The previous year (2005 ) projection for November 2006 for this level was overestimated by 13 students . The actual membership decreased by 13 . Over the previous six (6) years , growth has varied widely and included an unexpected decrease of 78 students in 2004 - 05 with smaller decreases each year since ' 04 - ' 05 . However, certain models did reflect the negative growth (- 185 ) at the elementary school level in 2001 - 2002 as they progress into the middle school cohorts . Accordingly, the previously noted elementary growth (positive and negative) matriculated into slow continued growth at the middle school level . The district ' s third Middle School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006 . The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10 - year projection period . 42