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Compiled by : Orange County Budget Office
<br /> 01 /29/07
<br /> OCS Student Projections (1 ) (4) Capacity Figures Revised by Planning Dept. on 5/22/07
<br /> Elementary
<br /> School Year 2000 -01 2001 -02 2002 =03 2003 =04 2004-05 2005=06 2006 -07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010 =11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014-15 2015 =16 201647
<br /> Actual 31078 2 ,893 21901 21945 31016 3 , 006 iiF39144
<br /> Tischler 3 , 130 31189 31247 3 , 306 32364 31423 31481 3 , 540 3 , 598 31657
<br /> OC Planning 31119 31164 31240 31334 31431 3 , 531 31634 3 , 741 39851 31964
<br /> 10 Year Growth 31120 31140 31181 31165 31203 31235 3 , 267 31300 3 , 333 31366
<br /> 5 Year Growth 31186 39232 31216 39250 31282 31315 31348 31381 31415
<br /> 3 Year Growth All 3 , 137 39172 3 , 214 31203 39237 3 , 269 3 , 302 39335 31368 31402
<br /> Average 33130 31170 31223 31245 31297 31348 39400 31453 39506 39561
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) ( 185) 8 44 71 ! '"1 '+ 66 58 40 53 22 52 51 52 53 53 55
<br /> Capacity - 100 % Level of Service 31820 39820 3 ,820 3 ,820 31820 31920 39920 3 , 920 39920 31694 39694 31694 39694 31694 30694 39694 31694
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100 % LOS ( 742 ) (927) (919) (875) IL ? 14 ) ( 3A £ ) ( 790 ) ( 471 ) (449) ( 397) (346)
<br /> 105% Level of Service 41011 49011 41011 45011 41011 4, 0i 16 116 4, 116 49116 31879 3 ,879 31879 3 ,879 39879 3 , 879 39879 3 , 879
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 105 % LOS ( 933) ( 19118 ) ( 17110 ) ( 19066) (995) ( 13110 ) ( 1 , 0 ( 986) ( 946) ( 656) ( 634) ( 582 ) ( 531 ) (4 `i (426) (373 ) ( 31 :` '
<br /> Actual - % Level of Service 1 80 . 6 % 75 * 7 % 1 75 . 9 % 7741 % 1 79 . 0 % 1 76 . 7 % 78 . 4%
<br /> Average - % Level of Service 79 . 8 % 80 , 9% 1 87 . 2 % 87 . 8 % 89 . 3 % 90 . 6% 92 . 0 % 93 . 5% 94 . 9 % 96 . 4 %
<br /> Annual Student ro Rate -6.01 % 1 0 . 28 % 1 .52% 2 .41 % -0 . 33% 2 . 20 % 11 . % 1 .28% 1 .66% On68% 1 1 .61 % 1 .55% 1 .55% 1 . 56% 1 . 55% 1 .56%
<br /> additional 100 new seats @ Hillsborough Elementary
<br /> OCS Student Projections(l )
<br /> Middle
<br /> School Year 2000 -01 2001 -02 2002 =03 2003=04 2004=05 2005=06 2006=07 2007=08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012-13 2013 =14 2014=15 2015 -16 2016- 17
<br /> Actual 1 , 504 11527 11631 12671 19593 1 , 590 19580
<br /> Tischler 11606 1 , 636 11666 1 , 696 12726 1 , 756 11786 11816 11846 11876
<br /> OC Planning 11612 1 , 653 11697 11727 11757 11789 11821 11854 19888 1 , 923
<br /> 10 Year Growth 19585 19553 19551 11631 1 , 631 10656 11623 19646 11662 1 , 679
<br /> 5 Year Growth 1 , 605 1 , 592 1 , 620 11728 1 , 755 11787 11753 19773 11790 1 , 808
<br /> 3 Year Growth 11597 11585 1 , 609 19705 11723 11750 11722 11742 11759 11777
<br /> Average 1 , 601 11604 11629 1 , 697 19718 1 , 748 15741 13766 19789 11813
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) 23 104 40 (78) (3) ( 10 ) 21 3 25 69 21 29 25 23 24
<br /> Capacity - 100 % Level of Service 1 ,466 11466 11466 1 ,466 1 ,466 11466 21166 2 , 166 21166 25166 23166 2 , 166 29166 2 , 166 25166 2 , 166 21166
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100 % LOS 38 61 165 205 127 124 ( 586) ( 565) ( 562 ) ( 537 ) (469) (448) (418) 1 1 ='_ >; ( �' U ? qJ ` ' )
<br /> 107 % Level of Service 11569 11569 19569 1 , 569 1 , 569 11569 21318 318 29318 29318 2 , 318 21318 2 ,318 29318 21318 2 , 318 29318
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over (Under) 107% LOS 1 ( 65) (42 ) 1 62 1 102 1 24 1 21 1 ( 738 ) ( 7 7 } ( r �! %;� � ( 689 ) ( 620 ) ( 599 ) ( 570 ) ( 577) �; > 'u ) ( � a29 )
<br /> Actual - % Level of Service 1 102 . 6% 1 104 . 2 % 1 111 . 3 % 1 114 . 0 % 1 108 . 7 % 1 108 . 5% 72 . 9 %
<br /> Average - % Level of Service 73 . 9 % 74 . 0 % 75 . 2 % 78 .4 % 7903 % 1 80 , 7% 1 80 , 4 % 1 81 , 5 % 1 82 , 6 % 1 83 . 7 %
<br /> Annual Student ro Rate 1 . 53% 6*81 % 1 2o45% 1 -4 . 67% -0 . 19 % -0 . 63 % 1 . 33 % 1 17% 1 1 . 55% 4.22 % 1 .24% 1670 % 1 -0.38% 1 .45% 1 .29 % 1 .32 %
<br /> middle school # 3 opens in fall 2006 with 700 additional seats 771
<br /> OCS Student Projections
<br /> High
<br /> School Year 2000 =01 2001 =02 2002 =03 2003 =04 2004-05 2005 =06 2006-07 2007=08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 =14 2014-15 2015=16 2015=16
<br /> Actual 11672 11753 11828 11887 2 , 057 21124 21180
<br /> Tischler 2 , 226 21267 2 , 309 21351 2 , 392 2 ,434 21475 21517 2 , 559 27600
<br /> OC Planning 21247 21309 21345 2 ,381 21419 21458 21497 21537 21578 21620
<br /> 10 Year Growth 29138 29100 21005 19970 21003 11968 21041 29056 21063 29088
<br /> 5 Year Growth 21167 21191 21139 21137 21192 21194 21309 21359 21387 2 ,414
<br /> 3 Year Growth 21146 21150 21089 2 , 074 21123 21121 21219 21259 21281 21303
<br /> Average 21185 29203 29177 29183 2 ,226 2 ,235 29308 21346 22374 23405
<br /> Annual Change - Increase ( Decrease) in Actual & Projected Membership) 81 75 59 170 67 56 5 19 (26) 5 43 9 73 37 28 31
<br /> Capacity - 100 % Level of Service 1 , 518 1 , 518 29518 21518 23518 21518 21518 2 , 518 21518 21518 21518 29518 29518 2 , 518 2 $ 18 21518 21518 n
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 100 % LOS 154 235 (690 ) (631 ) (461 ) ( 394) (338) (333) ( 315) (341 ) (335) (292 ) (283 ) (210 ) ( 172 ) ( 144) ( 113 ) '�
<br /> 110 % Level of Service 11670 1 , 670 21770 2 ,770 22770 29770 21770 29770 2 , 770 29770 29770 29770 29770 21770 29770 2 ,770 29770
<br /> Number of Students , Actual and Projected , Over ( Under) 110 % LOS 2 83 (942 ) ( 883 ) ( 713 ) ( 646) ( 590) ( 585) ( 566) ( 592 ) ( 587 ) ( 544 ) ( 535) (462 ) (424 ) ( 396) (365) (0
<br /> Actual - % Level of Service 1 110 . 1 % 1 115 . 5 % 1 72 . 6 % 1 74 . 9 % 81 . 7% 84 . 4 % 86 . 6% Z
<br /> Average - % Level of Service 608 % 1 87 . 5 % 8605% 1 86 . 70/6 8844 % 1 88 , 8 % 1 91 , 7 % 1 93 . 2 % 94 . 3 % 95 . 5 %
<br /> Annual Student ro Rate 4.84% 4.28% .23% 9.01 % 126% 1 2 .64% 0 .22% Oo85% 1 4 .18% 0 .24% 1 .98% 0 .41 % 3 . 28 % 1 .62 % 1019% 1 1 .320f
<br /> cedar ridge high opens with 1,000 seats in fall 2002
<br /> indicates first year that district surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service
<br /> It is important to note that this reflects the November 15, 2006 date of membership as outlined in by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance . It does not include CHCCS students attending the Hospital School . "V
<br /> (2 ) The Tischler Model provides for the " Linear Method " of projections for both CHCCS and OCS . Original projections used in prior years projection models included the " Linear Extrapolation Method " for CHCCS .
<br /> (3) Annual growth rate calculated using actual membership for years 2000-01 through 2006-07 and average membership for years 2006-07 through 2016- 17 .
<br /> (4) Class sizes for grades K-3 = 1 : 23 for school years 2006-07 and 2007-08 . In accordance with 2005 School Collaboration Work Group direction , with planned opening of CHCCS Elementary # 10 in school year 2008-09 , K-3 class sizes for school years 2008-09 through 2015- 16 reflect 1 : 21 as directed by past State legislative action .
<br /> This results in OCS elementary capacity reduction (district wide) of 297 seats (decreasing from 4 , 116 [ 105% LOS @ 1 : 23 class size] to 3 , 819 [ 105 % LOS @ 1 : 21 class size] ) .
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