Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
Section II <br /> Attachment II . B . I <br /> (page 7 of 10) <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTION <br /> School District : Chapel Hill - Carrboro <br /> Year/Date Issued : 12/07/2005 <br /> Year/Date Based : November 15 , 2005 -2006 <br /> Years Projected : 2007 -2016 <br /> A. Projection Type : OCP Linear Wave <br /> 1 . Projection Mathematical linear with percent variation among school levels . <br /> Description/ Reflecting progressing waves of membership . <br /> Characteristics : <br /> 2 . Projection Formula : BYM + (BYI — 5 (n)) = EYM EYM x % SL = EYM/SL <br /> (BYM = Base year 2"d month membership; BY1 = year student membership increment <br /> base (285) ; EYM =Ensuing year membership • n = Projection Year; % SL = % of total <br /> membership per school level (i. e. , elementary, middle, high) ; EYM/SL = Ensuing yew <br /> member by school level <br /> 3 . Projection Base year growth reflects 10-year average . <br /> Assumptions : Decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2009 - 2010 reflects decreases in <br /> housing growth. <br /> Reflects buildout constraints . <br /> 4 . Average Annual 2 . 0 7 % <br /> Growth Rate : ASGR = (2015 PM — 2005 AM)/ 10 = 249 (ASGR = Annual Student Growth Rate; <br /> PM = Projected Membership, AM = Actual Membership) <br /> 5 . Attachments : a) Projections (includes : Total , Elementary, Middle , and High) <br /> 6 . Projection Performed : By : Brian Carson Date : 12/07/2005 <br /> 7 . Projection Reviewed : By : Date : <br /> 8 . Projection Certified : <br /> 9 . Comments : <br /> 27 <br />