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Section II <br /> Attachment ILB . I <br /> (page 5 of 10) <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTION <br /> School District : Orange County <br /> Year/Date Issued : 12/07/05 <br /> Year/Date Based : November 15 , 2005 -2006 <br /> Years Projected : 2007-2016 <br /> A. Projection Type : 10 Year Cohort <br /> 1 . Projection Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br /> Description/ the previous 10 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br /> Characteristics : projected membership by school level . An assumed kindergarten membership <br /> is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates . <br /> 2 . Projection Formula : <br /> J K„ = K„-, + (K,I -, * 0 . 01) a = ( J G„ l g„-, ) / 10 b = g„ -, (a ) <br /> =10 <br /> K=Kindergarten membership, n = Given school year, G= Given grade 's membership <br /> (other than Kindergarten) g=Previous grade 's membership, a =Average advancement <br /> rate, b =Projected membership <br /> 3 . Projection Assumes a 1 % annual growth rate for the kindergarten grade level. <br /> Assumptions : Assumes the same percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br /> to the next level each year. <br /> 4 . Average Annual 0 . 68 % Note: This is an average annual rate over all school levels over ten years. <br /> Growth Rate . <br /> 5 . Attachments : <br /> 6 . Projection Performed : By : Scroggs , Benedict, Dean Date : 12/07/05 <br /> 7 . Projection Reviewed : By : Date : <br /> 8 . Projection Certified : <br /> 9 . Comments : <br /> 25 <br />