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Section II <br /> Attachment H. li . 1 <br /> (page 4 of 10) <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTION <br /> School District: Orange County <br /> Year/Date Issued : 12/07/05 <br /> Year/Date Based : November 15 , 2005 - 2006 <br /> Years Projected : 2007-2016 <br /> A. Projection Type : 5 Year Cohort <br /> 1 . Projection Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br /> the previous 5 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br /> Bosoms <br /> Description/ <br /> Characteristics : projected membership by school level . An assumed kindergarten membership <br /> is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates . <br /> n=l <br /> 2 . Projection Formula : �/ p <br /> J Kn = K,�-1 + �K,t-► * 0 . 01) a G= ( � n / b n - � ) / 5 b = gn-t (a ) <br /> n=5 <br /> K=Kindergarten membership, n = Given school year, G= Given grade 's ►membership <br /> (other than Kindergarten) g=Previous grade 's membership, a =Average advancement <br /> rate, b =Projected membership <br /> 3 . Projection Assumes a M annual growth rate for the kindergarten grade level . <br /> Assumptions : Assumes the same percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br /> to the next level each year. <br /> 4 . Average Annual 0 . 76 % Note: This is an average annual rate over all school levels over ten years. <br /> Growth Rate : <br /> 5. Attachments : <br /> 6 . Projection Performed : By : Scroggs, Benedict , Dean Date : 12/07/2005 <br /> 7 . Projection Reviewed : By : Date : <br /> 8 . Projection Certified : <br /> 9 . Comments : <br /> 24 <br />