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Section II <br /> Be Student Projection Methodology <br /> 1 . Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — This section is reviewed and recommended <br /> by the Planning Directors , School Representatives , Technical Advisory Committee <br /> ( SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change , if necessary. <br /> 2 . Definition - The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future <br /> years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle <br /> and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific <br /> time (November 15 ) in the school year . These methods are also known as ` models ' . <br /> 3 . Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> Presently, the average of five models are being used : namely 3 , 5 , and 10 year <br /> history/cohort survival methods , Orange County Planning Department Linear <br /> Wave and Tischler Linear methods . Attachment II . B . 1 includes a description of <br /> each model . <br /> 4 . Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> Performance of the models is monitored each year . The value of a projection model is in its <br /> prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the <br /> annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP ) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and <br /> construction. Attachment II . B . 3 shows the performance of the models for the 2006 . 7 school <br /> year from the prior year projection . After which, a summary of each model is provided . <br /> 5 . Recommendation - <br /> Five (5 ) years of projection results are now available . Analysis on the accuracy of the results is <br /> showing the some models have better results in one district while others have better results in <br /> the other district . The historic growth rate is easily captured by the models but projected future <br /> growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. This is especially true in the Orange County <br /> School District which serves students living within the Orange County portion of the City of <br /> Mebane . Because the City of Mebane is not a signatory party to the SAPFO , the. models have <br /> not adequately taken into account the significant residential growth occurring within Mebane ' s <br /> jurisdiction . The SAPFOTAC proposes to meet during 2007 to analyze the data and formulate <br /> 19 <br />