Minutes 09-06-2018 Work Session - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

14 Staff reviewed 2010 Census data and the most recent population estimates from the American Community Survey. The 2010 Census detailed population numbers are based on more precise block level delineations (Attachment C). Conversely, the ACS develops its population projections at a larger block group level, with each block group consisting of multiple Census blocks (Attachment D). The block group areas in some cases consist of land areas larger than the towns in the County. Additionally, while block boundaries align more directly with the Commissioner electoral districts, the larger block group level boundaries vary substantially from the current Commissioner electoral district lines. The ACS 5-Year estimates utilize 5 years of collected data to produce estimates based on the block group level. It should also be noted that the ACS data are only estimates based on sampling and are not as accurate as the decennial Census data. For example the 2010 Census population for Orange County was 133,801. Conversely, the 2010 ACS (5-year), a 5 year period prior to the 2016 ACS, estimated the County’s population at 129,562. This equates to 3.22% lower than the actual 2010 Census. The 2016 ACS may similarly underrepresent the 2016 population, but is statistically relevant. Using the 2016 ACS 5-year data (the most current data available from ACS), staff developed estimates of the population for the two BOCC voting districts. Unfortunately, as noted previously, the block group boundaries do not follow the current BOCC electoral districts (figure 1). There are six block groups that are split by the voting districts. Figure 1 For each block group that was entirely within a single BOCC voting district staff assigned the population numbers to that voting district. For three of the block groups that were split, staff utilized the County’s current address layer to calculate how many residential addresses were in each block group. Staff subsequently took the percentage of addresses for each block group that were in each voting district and then divided the total population for each block group by the percentages and then assigned the population numbers to each district (figure 2). This allowed staff to estimate the 2016 populations for each BOCC voting district (figure 3). For the other three split block groups that had only a small percent of addresses in a district, staff applied the entire population to the district that had the majority of addresses. Figure 2 To summarize, the 2010 Census population for District 1 was 82,412. The County staff generated 2016 ACS 5-Year estimate for District 1 is 85,990. The 2010 Census population for District 2 was 51,389. The County staff-generated 2016 ACS 5-Year estimate for District 2 is 53,817. The 2010 Census total County population was 133,801. The 2016 ACS 5-Year estimate for the entire County is 139,807. 4) Can staff investigate and provide potential scenario maps eliminating at large Commissioner seats and detailing two Commissioner districts with multiple Commissioners representing each district? – {Page 4 of abstract. ) At the March 28, 2017 work session, the Board discussed, in theory, the elimination of at large seats. A scenario of seven districts with one Commissioner representing each district was discussed. However, based on Board discussion, staff understood that seven-district framework