Orange County NC Website
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20 <br /> 1 ■ Extended Projections to 2053 <br /> 2 ■ Pretrial and State Projection— 138.42 Inmates by 2053 <br /> 3 ■ Jail Management Factor 17.6% - 168 Bed Capacity <br /> 4 ■ Recognized Trends of Lower Arrests and Incarceration <br /> 5 ■ More Specialized Units; Less General Population <br /> 6 ■ Flexible Design and Construction <br /> 7 <br /> 8 Jail Bed Projections — Recent Study <br /> 9 o 2018 Moseley Architect Analysis <br /> 10 ■ Utilized Updated Data through 2017 <br /> 11 ■ Utilized Highest Overall Jail Admission Rate and Highest Average <br /> 12 Length of Stay Over the Past Five Years <br /> 13 <br /> 14 ■ Pretrial and State Projection— 121.88 Inmates by 2040 <br /> 15 ■ Inmate Classification Factor of 20% - 146.25 Bed Capacity <br /> 16 ■ Added Concept of Peaking to Bed Capacity <br /> 17 ❖ 2017 ADP 82.62 <br /> 18 ❖ 2017 Peak 134.23 <br /> 19 <br /> 20 Chair Dorosin asked if the peak numbers include federal inmates, and if the high <br /> 21 numbers previously referred to be Jamie Sykes (155-160 capacity) also include the federal <br /> 22 inmates. <br /> 23 Jamie Sykes said the daily numbers include federal inmates, but the peak numbers list <br /> 24 above do not. <br /> 25 <br /> 26 • Jail Bed Projections <br /> 27 o Orange County Staff Analysis <br /> 28 ■ Annual Admissions X Average Length of Stay = Jail Bed Days <br /> 29 ■ Jail Bed Days / 365 = Average Daily Population <br /> 30 ■ Assumptions embedded in projections <br /> 31 ❖ Population Growth <br /> 32 ❖ Admissions at Recent Rates (5 Years) <br /> 33 ❖ Average Length of Stay at Recent Rates (5 Years) <br /> 34 ❖ Classification and Management Factor— 20% <br /> 35 <br /> 36 • Population Projections—through 2037- graph- slide 61 <br /> 37 • Admissions History- total county arrests and jail admissions <br /> 38 • Average Length of Stay (ALOS) History <br /> 39 • Average Daily Population (ADP) History-about 82-83 inmates <br /> 40 <br /> 41 Public Safety <br /> 42 Projected Jail Bed Needs— Five Models - charts <br /> 43 o Linear Model <br /> 44 o Ratio of ADP to Population <br /> 45 o High Admission Rate <br /> 46 o Average Admission Rate high ALOS <br /> 47 o Average Admission Rate Average ALOS <br /> 48 <br /> 49 Detention Center Review <br /> 50 • Forecast Models- graph- Average Daily Capacity Five Forecast Models -121 to 142 beds <br />