Orange County NC Website
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1 <br />2 <br />3 <br />4 <br />5 <br />6 <br />7 <br />8 <br />9 <br />10 <br />11 <br />12 <br />13 <br />14 <br />15 <br />16 <br />17 <br />18 <br />19 <br />20 <br />21 <br />22 <br />23 <br />24 <br />25 <br />26 <br />27 <br />28 <br />29 <br />30 <br />31 <br />32 <br />33 <br />34 <br />35 <br />36 <br />37 <br />38 <br />39 <br />40 <br />41 <br />42 <br />43 <br />44 <br />45 <br />46 <br />47 <br />48 <br />49 <br />50 <br />C <br />• Extended Projections to 2053 <br />• Pretrial and State Projection — 138.42 Inmates by 2053 <br />• Jail Management Factor 17.6% - 168 Bed Capacity <br />• Recognized Trends of Lower Arrests and Incarceration <br />• More Specialized Units; Less General Population <br />• Flexible Design and Construction <br />• Jail Bed Projections — Recent Study <br />o 2018 Moseley Architect Analysis <br />• Utilized Updated Data through 2017 <br />• Utilized Highest Overall Jail Admission Rate and Highest Average <br />Length of Stay Over the Past Five Years <br />• Pretrial and State Projection — 121.88 Inmates by 2040 <br />• Inmate Classification Factor of 20% - 146.25 Bed Capacity <br />• Added Concept of Peaking to Bed Capacity <br />❖ 2017 ADP 82.62 <br />❖ 2017 Peak 134.23 <br />Chair Dorosin asked if the peak numbers include federal inmates, and if the high <br />numbers previously referred to be Jamie Sykes (155 -160 capacity) also include the federal <br />inmates. <br />Jamie Sykes said the daily numbers include federal inmates, but the peak numbers list <br />above do not. <br />Jail Bed Projections <br />o Orange County Staff Analysis <br />• Annual Admissions X Average Length of Stay = Jail Bed Days <br />• Jail Bed Days / 365 = Average Daily Population <br />• Assumptions embedded in projections <br />❖ Population Growth <br />❖ Admissions at Recent Rates (5 Years) <br />❖ Average Length of Stay at Recent Rates (5 Years) <br />❖ Classification and Management Factor — 20% <br />• Population Projections — through 2037- graph- slide 61 <br />• Admissions History- total county arrests and jail admissions <br />• Average Length of Stay (ALOS) History <br />• Average Daily Population (ADP) History -about 82 -83 inmates <br />Public Safety <br />• Projected Jail Bed Needs — Five Models - charts <br />• Linear Model <br />• Ratio of ADP to Population <br />• High Admission Rate <br />• Average Admission Rate high ALOS <br />• Average Admission Rate Average ALOS <br />Detention Center Review <br />• Forecast Models- graph- Average Daily Capacity Five Forecast Models -121 to 142 beds <br />