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Orange County, NC Financial Plan & Rate Study for Solid Waste Enterprise Fund 2.1.8 Model Results Exhibit 12 shows the Modeled Budgetary Gap for Scenario 1 and the break -even Program Fees for Scenario 2 for FY 2016 -17 to FY 2020 -21, all of which reflect a continuance of the General Fund contribution. In addition to developing the Test Year revenue requirements, SCS forecasted the annual revenue requirement for FY 2016 -17 to FY 2020 -21 based on the projected annual expenses. The assumptions used to develop the forecast for Fund reserves and expenses are presented in Appendix C. These forecasted revenues and expenses were utilized with the Rate Model to calculate the Fund's potential annual net revenue /deficit or break -even Program Fee, depending on the scenario. Note that the Program Fee was back - calculated using an optimization algorithm. Complete financial model results highlighting the Fund's projected annual net revenue /deficits are presented in Appendix F. Exhibit 12. Scenario Modeling Results — Projected Fund Budgetary Gap Scenario FY 2016 -17 FY 2017 -18 FY 2018 -19 FY 2019 -20 FY 2020 -21 1 — Status Quo Budgetary Gap with $107 Program ($1,780,040) ($2,015,497) ($2,064,603) ($2,345,290) ($2,593,011) Fee 2 — Break Even Program Fee with $0 Budgetary $137 $140 $141 $145 $148 Gap Note: Negative values indicate a projected gap. 2.1.9 Division Budgetary Leveling SCS developed a methodology to present the net revenue and expense output by the Model as if the Program Fee contribution in the various Scenarios were disbursed across all four Department Divisions, rather than solely through the Environmental Services Division. Allocations to the respective Department Divisions were made proportionally based on the expenses of those divisions and were calculated with the net output of the Model. This "Division Budgetary Leveling" should be considered for clarity and reference purposes only and is not a financial recommendation. 20