|
71
<br />Table 1. Hypothetical Transfer Station Pro Forma
<br />Fiscal Year
<br />2016 -17
<br />2017 -18
<br />2018 -19
<br />2019 -20
<br />2020 -21
<br />2021 -22
<br />2022 -23
<br />2023 -24
<br />2024 -25
<br />2025 -26
<br />2026 -27
<br />1 2027 -28
<br />2028 -29
<br />2029 -30
<br />2030 -31
<br />2031 -32
<br />2032 -33
<br />2033 -34
<br />2034 -35
<br />2035 -36
<br />Scenario Year
<br />1
<br />2
<br />3
<br />4
<br />5
<br />6
<br />7
<br />8
<br />9
<br />10
<br />11
<br />12
<br />13
<br />14
<br />15
<br />16
<br />17
<br />18
<br />19
<br />20
<br />2.10% Cost Escalation Factor per Year (CPI Factor)
<br />QUANTITIES
<br />Waste Produced by OC (tons)
<br />12,000
<br />12,180
<br />12,363
<br />12,548
<br />12,736
<br />12,927
<br />13,121
<br />13,318
<br />13,518
<br />13,721
<br />13,926
<br />14,135
<br />14,347
<br />14,563
<br />14,781
<br />15,003
<br />15,228
<br />15,456
<br />15,688
<br />15,923
<br />Waste Produced by Towns (tons)
<br />25,500
<br />25,883
<br />26,271
<br />26,665
<br />27,065
<br />27,471
<br />27,883
<br />28,301
<br />28,726
<br />29,156
<br />29,594
<br />30,038
<br />30,488
<br />30,946
<br />31,410
<br />31,881
<br />32,359
<br />32,845
<br />33,337
<br />33,837
<br />Waste Produced by Other Disposers (tons)
<br />10,000
<br />10,225
<br />10,455
<br />10,690
<br />10,931
<br />11,177
<br />11,428
<br />11,685
<br />11,948
<br />12,217
<br />12,492
<br />12,773
<br />13,060
<br />13,354
<br />13,655
<br />13,962
<br />14,276
<br />14,597
<br />14,926
<br />15,262
<br />Total Waste Handled (TPY)
<br />47,500
<br />48,288
<br />49,089
<br />49,903
<br />50,732
<br />51,575
<br />52,432
<br />53,305
<br />54,192
<br />55,094
<br />56,012
<br />56,946
<br />57,896
<br />58,863
<br />59,846
<br />60,846
<br />61,863
<br />62,898
<br />63,951
<br />65,022
<br />Total Waste Handled (TPD)
<br />183
<br />186
<br />189
<br />192
<br />196
<br />199
<br />202
<br />206
<br />209
<br />212
<br />216
<br />220
<br />223
<br />227
<br />231
<br />235
<br />238
<br />242
<br />246
<br />251
<br />REVENUES
<br />$ 50.00 / ton. Town Waste Tip Fee Revenue from Proposed TS
<br />$1,275,000
<br />$1,321,302
<br />$1,369,285
<br />$1,419,010
<br />$1,470,542
<br />$1,523,944
<br />$1,579,286
<br />$1,636,638
<br />$1,696,073
<br />$1,757,666
<br />$1,821,495
<br />$1,887,643
<br />$1,956,193
<br />$2,027,232
<br />$2,100,851
<br />$2,177,143
<br />$2,256,206
<br />$2,338,140
<br />$2,423,050
<br />$2,511,043
<br />$ 50.00 / ton. Other Waste Tip Fee Revenue from Proposed TS
<br />---------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
<br />$500,000
<br />----------------- ---------
<br />$521,986
<br />----------------------
<br />$544,939
<br />-----------------------
<br />$568,902
<br />-----------------------
<br />$593,918
<br />----------------------
<br />$620,034
<br />------------------------
<br />$647,298
<br />-----------------------
<br />$675,761
<br />-----------------------
<br />$705,476
<br />-----------------------
<br />$736,498
<br />------------------------
<br />$768,884
<br />$802,693
<br />$837,990
<br />-----------------------
<br />$874,838
<br />-----------------------
<br />$913,307
<br />--------
<br />$953,467
<br />-----------------------
<br />$995,394
<br />--------------- ---------
<br />$1,039,164
<br />----------------------
<br />$1,084,858
<br />-----------------------
<br />$1,132,562
<br />--------------- --------
<br />TotalNon- OC Waste Tip Fee Revenue from Proposed 75
<br />$1,775,000
<br />$7,843,288
<br />$7,974,224
<br />$7,987,912
<br />$2,064,459
<br />$2,143,978
<br />$2,226,585
<br />$2,312,400
<br />$2,407,549
<br />$2,494,163
<br />$2,590,379
<br />$2,690,336
<br />$2,794,182
<br />$2,902,070
<br />1,61--------
<br />$3,014,158
<br />$3,730,610
<br />$3,257,600
<br />$3,377,304
<br />$3,507,908
<br />$3,643,605
<br />$ 42.50 /ton. Durham TS Tip Avoided by Operating TS
<br />$510,000
<br />$528,521
<br />$547,714
<br />$567,604
<br />$588,317
<br />$609,578
<br />$631,715
<br />$654,655
<br />$678,429
<br />$703,066
<br />$728,598
<br />$755,057
<br />$782,477
<br />$810,893
<br />$840,340
<br />$870,857
<br />$902,482
<br />$935,256
<br />$969,220
<br />$1,004,417
<br />-Fees
<br />-------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
<br />$ 130.00 hr. OC Round -trip Haul Costs Saved by Proposed TS
<br />----------------- ---------
<br />$328,107
<br />----------------------
<br />$340,022
<br />-----------------------
<br />$352,370
<br />-----------------------
<br />$365,167
<br />----------------------
<br />$378,428
<br />-
<br />$392,170
<br />$406,412
<br />$421,171
<br />$436,465
<br />$452,316
<br />$468,742
<br />$485,764
<br />$503,404
<br />$521,686
<br />$540,631
<br />-
<br />$560,264
<br />$580,610
<br />$601,694
<br />$623,545
<br />$646,189
<br />Total Revenue
<br />$2,613,107
<br />$2,711,831
<br />$2,814,308
<br />$2,920,683
<br />$3,031,103
<br />$3,145,726
<br />$3,264,711
<br />$3,388,226
<br />$3,516,444
<br />$3,649,545
<br />$3,787,718
<br />$3,931,157
<br />$4,080,064
<br />$4,234,648
<br />$4,395,128
<br />$4,561,731
<br />$4,734,692
<br />$4,914,254
<br />$5,100,673
<br />$5,294,211
<br />COSTS
<br />Payment Towards Construction Capital Cost Principle
<br />$176,371
<br />$183,426
<br />$190,763
<br />$198,394
<br />$206,330
<br />$214,583
<br />$223,166
<br />$232,093
<br />$241,376
<br />$251,031
<br />$261,073
<br />$271,516
<br />$282,376
<br />$293,671
<br />$305,418
<br />$317,635
<br />$330,340
<br />$343,554
<br />$357,296
<br />$371,588
<br />Payment Towards Construction Capital Cost Interest
<br />$210,080
<br />$203,025
<br />$195,688
<br />$188,058
<br />$180,122
<br />$171,869
<br />$163,285
<br />$154,359
<br />$145,075
<br />$135,420
<br />$125,379
<br />$114,936
<br />$104,075
<br />$92,780
<br />$81,033
<br />$68,817
<br />$56,111
<br />$42,898
<br />$29,155
<br />$14,864
<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - - - --
<br />Total Amortized Capital Costs
<br />------------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,457
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />---------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />------------------ - - - - --
<br />$386,457
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />-----------------------
<br />$386,457
<br />------------------ - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,457
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,457
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,457
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$386,451
<br />---------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
<br />O&M Costs at TS (Does Not Include Disposal or Haul Costs)
<br />---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- ------ -- ------- - - - - --
<br />---------- -------- ----- -----------
<br />$354,840
<br />--------------- ---- - - - ---
<br />---------------
<br />$362,292
<br />------------ -- -- - - - - - --
<br />-----------------------
<br />$369,900
<br />------ - - - - --
<br />-----------------------
<br />$377,668
<br />-------- - - - - -- - --
<br />----------------------
<br />$385,599
<br />----- - - - - -- -105,
<br />------------------------
<br />$393,696
<br />---- - - - - -- --109,
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$401,964
<br />------- - - ---1 --
<br />$410,405
<br />-------- - - - - -- - --
<br />------------------------
<br />$419,024
<br />-------- - - - - -- - --
<br />-----------------------
<br />$427,823
<br />------ - - - - --
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$436,807
<br />---- - - - - -- --130,-----
<br />$445,980
<br />----- - - - - -- --135,642
<br />-----------------------
<br />$455,346
<br />---- - - - - -- --140, - - - --
<br />'------------------------
<br />$464,908
<br />-------------- ------ - --
<br />-----------------------
<br />$474,671
<br />------- - - - - -- -50,96
<br />-----------------------
<br />$484,639
<br />----- - - - - -- --156,
<br />---------------- -------------------------------
<br />$494,817
<br />---- - - - - -- --162, --- --
<br />$505,208
<br />---- - - - - -- --168,014
<br />-----------------------
<br />$515,817
<br />-------- - - - - -- - --
<br />-----------------------
<br />$526,649
<br />--------------80,4 ---
<br />$ 130.00 /hr. TS Haul Costs to LF for OC Waste ( <750 miles)
<br />$91,619
<br />$94,946
<br />$98,394
<br />$98,394
<br />01,9
<br />$101,967
<br />7
<br />$105,670
<br />$109,508
<br />08
<br />13,---
<br />$113,484
<br />17,6
<br />$117,606
<br />21,8
<br />$121,877
<br />$126,302
<br />126,30
<br />$130,889
<br />$135,642
<br />$140,568
<br />$145,673
<br />$150,963
<br />4
<br />$156,445
<br />$162,127
<br />$168,014
<br />$174,116
<br />74,1
<br />$180,439
<br />$ 130.00 / hr. TS Haul Costs to LF for Town Waste ( <7 50 miles)
<br />$194,690
<br />$201,761
<br />$209,088
<br />$216,681
<br />$224,549
<br />$232,704
<br />$241,155
<br />$249,912
<br />$258,988
<br />$268,393
<br />$278,139
<br />$288,240
<br />$298,707
<br />$309,555
<br />$320,797
<br />$332,446
<br />$344,519
<br />$357,030
<br />$369,996
<br />$383,432
<br />$ 130-001 TS Haul Costs to LF for Other Disposers ( <150 miles)
<br />------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
<br />$76,349
<br />------------------ -------'-----------------------
<br />$79,706
<br />$83,211
<br />-----------------------
<br />$86,870
<br />-----------------------
<br />$90,690
<br />----------------------
<br />$94,678
<br />------------------------
<br />$98,841
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$103,188
<br />$107,725
<br />-----------------------
<br />$112,462
<br />-----------------------
<br />$117,407
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$122,570
<br />$127,960
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$133,586
<br />$139,461
<br />-----------------------
<br />$145,593
<br />-----------------------
<br />$151,995
<br />---------------- -------'-----------------------
<br />$158,679
<br />$165,656
<br />-----------------------
<br />$172,940
<br />-----------------------
<br />$ 2.25 / mile. TS Haul Costs to LF for OC Waste ( >150 miles)
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$ 2.25 / mile. TS Haul Costs to LF for Town Waste ( >150 miles)
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$0
<br />$ 2.25 / mile. TS Haul Costs to LF for Other Disposers ( >150 miles)
<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />------------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />---------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />------------------ - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />-----------------------
<br />$0
<br />------------------ - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />�----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$0
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />Total TS Haul Costs to LF for Non - County Accepted TS Waste
<br />$271,040
<br />$2812467
<br />$292,299
<br />$303,551
<br />$315,240
<br />$327,382
<br />$339,996
<br />$353,700
<br />$366,713
<br />$380,855
<br />$395,547
<br />$410,810
<br />$426,667
<br />$443,141
<br />$460,257
<br />$478,039
<br />$496,574
<br />$515,709
<br />$535,652
<br />$556,373
<br />---------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- st-----------------------
<br />Total TS Haul Costs to LF for OC and Non -OC Accepted TS Waste
<br />------------'--
<br />$362,659
<br />---------376,413
<br />$376,413
<br />------...$-90,693
<br />$390,693
<br />---------------5,518
<br />$405,578
<br />-----------420,910
<br />$420,910
<br />------------436,890
<br />$436,890
<br />---------- -453,------'---
<br />$453,480
<br />----------70,705
<br />$470,705
<br />---------------8,58 --------------507,757
<br />$488,589
<br />$507,757
<br />--------- --526,------'--
<br />$526,436
<br />---------546,452
<br />$546,452
<br />---------- ---67,2----'---
<br />$567,235
<br />----------88,814
<br />$588,814
<br />------------671,225
<br />$67 7,220
<br />------------634,485
<br />$634,485
<br />---------- -658,641.'-----
<br />$658,647
<br />-...$ ---------------
<br />$683,723
<br />---------09,768
<br />$709,768
<br />--------------- --------
<br />$736,821.
<br />----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - - - --
<br />$ 32.67 / ton Tip Fees at Disposal Point for OC Waste
<br />---------------- ----6Z
<br />$392,040
<br />---------- ----- -- - - - - --
<br />$406,277
<br />------ - - - - -- 421,031
<br />$421,031
<br />------ - - - - -- 436,321
<br />$436,321
<br />---- - - - - -- ---52,16
<br />$452,166
<br />---------- - - - - -- - - - - --
<br />$468,586
<br />---------- -------- - - - --
<br />$485,603
<br />------ - - - - -- 503,237
<br />$503,237
<br />----------- ------ ------
<br />$521,512
<br />----- - - - - -- ---46,4---
<br />$540,451
<br />---------------- -------------------------
<br />$560,078
<br />- - - - --
<br />$580,417
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$601,495
<br />------------ ----- ------
<br />$623,338
<br />----- - - - - -- -641,97
<br />$645,974
<br />_ ---------- ------ ------
<br />$669,433
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$693,744
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$718,937
<br />----------------- - - - - --
<br />$745,045
<br />----------------
<br />$772,101
<br />$ 32.67 / ton Tip Fees at Disposal Point for Town Waste
<br />$833,085
<br />$863,338
<br />$894,691
<br />$927,181
<br />$960,852
<br />$995745
<br />$1,031,906
<br />$1,069,379
<br />$1,108,214
<br />$1,148,459
<br />$1,190,165
<br />$1,233,386
<br />$1,278,176
<br />$1,324,593
<br />$1,372,696
<br />$1,422,545
<br />$1,474,205
<br />$1,527,741
<br />$1,583,221
<br />$1,640,715
<br />$ 32.67 / ton Tip Fees at Disposal Point for Other Disposers Waste
<br />$326,700
<br />$341,066
<br />$3561063
<br />$3711720
<br />$388,066
<br />$405,130
<br />$422,945
<br />$441,543
<br />$460,958
<br />$4812228
<br />$502,389
<br />$524,480
<br />$547,543
<br />$5711619
<br />$596,755
<br />$622,996
<br />$650,390
<br />$678,990
<br />$7082846
<br />$740,016
<br />Total Tip Fees at Disposal Pointfor Non-OC-Waste'
<br />$7,159,785
<br />$1204,404
<br />$1,250,754
<br />$7,298,902
<br />$1,348,918
<br />$1,400,875
<br />$1,454,850
<br />$1,510,922
<br />$7,569,172
<br />$1,629,686
<br />$1,692,553
<br />$1,757,866
<br />$1,825,719
<br />$1,896,272
<br />$1,969,451
<br />$2,045,541
<br />$2,724,595
<br />$2,206,730
<br />$2,292,067
<br />$2,380,732
<br />Total Ti Fees at Disposal Point for OC and Non -OC Waste
<br />P P
<br />$ 1 551 825
<br />1,670,687
<br />1 671 785
<br />$
<br />$ 7,735,222
<br />1 801 083
<br />$
<br />$ 1,869,467
<br />1 940 453
<br />$
<br />$ 2,074,159
<br />$
<br />2 090 685
<br />$
<br />$ 2,770,138
<br />2 252 631
<br />$
<br />$ 2 338 282
<br />$ 2,427,213
<br />2 579 550
<br />$
<br />$ 2,615,425
<br />2 714 974
<br />$
<br />$ 2,878,339
<br />2 925 667
<br />$
<br />$ 3,037,772
<br />3,152,833$
<br />$
<br />Total Expenses
<br />$2,655,775
<br />$2,735,838
<br />$2,818,829
<br />$2,904,860
<br />$2,994,043
<br />$3,086,499
<br />$3,182,349
<br />$3,281,721
<br />$3,384,749
<br />$3,491,569
<br />$3,602,326
<br />$3,717,167
<br />$3,836,246
<br />$3,959,724
<br />$4,087,768
<br />$4,220,549
<br />$4,358,248
<br />$4,501,050
<br />$4,649,148
<br />$4,802,745
<br />ALL
<br />IN ET CASH FLOW
<br />($42,668)
<br />($24,007)
<br />($4,521)
<br />$15,823
<br />$37,060
<br />$59,227
<br />$82,362
<br />$106,504
<br />$131,695
<br />$157,976
<br />$185,393
<br />$213,991
<br />$243,818
<br />1 $274,924
<br />$307,361
<br />$341,182
<br />$376,444
<br />$413,205
<br />$451,524
<br />$491,466
<br />WASTE
<br />NET CASH FLOW PER TON
<br />($0.90)
<br />($0.50)
<br />($0.09)
<br />$0.32
<br />$0.73
<br />$1.15
<br />$1.57
<br />$2.00
<br />$2.43
<br />$2.87
<br />$3.31
<br />$3.76
<br />$4.21
<br />$4.67
<br />$5.14
<br />$5.61
<br />$6.09
<br />$6.57
<br />$7.06
<br />$7.56
<br />4.00% NPV RATE
<br />NPV - Net Present Value ( cash flows for 2016 to 2021)
<br />($23,255)
<br />NPV - Net Present Value ( cash flows for 2016 to 2026)
<br />$363,213
<br />NPV - Net Present Value ( cash flows for 2016 to 2036)
<br />$2,111,154
<br />Internal Rate of Return ( cash flows for 2016 to 2021)
<br />-9%
<br />Internal Rate of Return ( cash flows for 2016 to 2026)
<br />41%
<br />Internal Rate of Return ( cash flows for 2016 to 2036)
<br />48%
<br />Average Annual Net Cash Flow ( for 2016 through 2021)
<br />($3,663)
<br />Average Annual Net Cash Flow ( for 2016 through 2026)
<br />$51,945
<br />Average Annual Net Cash Flow ( for 2016 through 2036)
<br />$190,938
<br />NOTES:
<br />1. Cost Escalation Factor is applied on TS O &M Costs and all associated Haul costs (both short and long haul). See Model Assumptions page for additional assumptions.
<br />2. All years represent County's Fiscal year. For example, 2016 -17 covers the period of 6/1/16 through 6/1 /17.
<br />3. Waste Escalation rate is set to 1.5% for OC /Town waste and 2.25% for Other waste so that Year 1 corresponds to 180 TPD total and Year 20 corresponds to 250 TPD total.
<br />4. Year 1 assumes current County and Town waste disposal rates with 10,000 TPY (-22 %) Other Disposers waste disposal
<br />S. Model conservatively assumes 20 -year lifespan of TS, allowing for an estimated closure year of 2035.
<br />6. Model assumes recycling (other than recycling bay in preliminary capital cost estimate) incurs no additional recurring costs /savings.
<br />7. Cost escalation factor is set to 2.1 % and applied to waste Tip fees on a yearly basis, although it is more likely that Tip fees will increase in multiple -year increments.
<br />B. Other Disposers include UNC and UNC - Healthcare, which combined contribute approximately 8,500 TPY of waste.
<br />G -1
<br />
|