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34 <br />Orange County, NC <br />Financial Plan and Rate Study for Solid Waste Enterprise Fund <br />for FY 2016 -17 through FY 2020 -21 based on the projected annual expenses. The assumptions <br />used to develop the forecast for Fund reserves and expenses are presented in Appendix C. These <br />forecasted revenues and expenses were utilized to develop each scenario (and sub - scenario) <br />iteration of the Rate Model to calculate the Fund's potential annual net revenue /deficit based on <br />the various input parameters associated with each scenario. <br />Exhibit 13. Scenario Modeling Results — Projected Fund Budgetary <br />Gap <br />Scenario <br />FY 2016 -17 <br />FY 2017 -18 <br />FY 2018 -19 <br />FY 2019 -20 <br />FY 2020 -21 <br />1 A — Status Quo: $107 <br />($3,784,759) <br />($4,020,216) <br />($4,069,322) <br />($4,350,009) <br />($4,597,730) <br />2A — $130 <br />($2,400,665) <br />($2,620,897) <br />($2,654,610) <br />($2,015,480) <br />($3,151,723) <br />3A — $150 <br />($1,197,105) <br />($1,404,097) <br />($1,424,426) <br />($1,676,019) <br />($1,894,327) <br />4A — Break Even <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />5A —All Funding through <br />($10,223,805) <br />($10,530,091) <br />($10,650,806) <br />($10,099,634) <br />($11,324,803) <br />General Fund <br />6A.1 — Construct TS <br />Scenario: OC & Town <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />Waste Only <br />6A.2 — Construct TS <br />Scenario: OC, Town, & <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />Other Waste <br />7A — Phase -Out General <br />Fund Contribution <br />($1,780,040) <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />$0 <br />Approach <br />Exhibit 14 shows the break -even Program Fees for each of the sub - scenarios under Scenarios 4 <br />and 6 for FY 2016 -17 through FY 2020 -21. Note that in Scenarios 4 and 6, the Program Fee was <br />back - calculated using an optimization algorithm. Exhibit 15 extends this analysis for FY 2021- <br />22 through FY 2025 -26 but only shows the net revenue /expense effect the transfer station has on <br />the Program Fee (note that positive values indicate the necessary increase in the Program Fee <br />brought by net transfer station expense and negative values indicate the potential decrease in the <br />Program fee brought by net transfer station revenue). Complete financial model results <br />highlighting the Fund's projected annual net revenue /deficits are presented in Appendix F and <br />the Model input parameters and results for Hypothetical Transfer Station Net Revenue Estimate <br />are presented in Appendix G. <br />21 <br />