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33 Orange County, NC Financial Plan and Rate Study for Solid Waste Enterprise Fund • Scenario 5 — This scenario serves as an assessment of the required increase in the contribution from the General Fund to balance projected operating expenses and revenues for solid waste and recycling services if the Program Fee was permanently eliminated effective in FY 2016 -17. It is assumed that the revenue to enable this contribution would be generated by a Property Tax Rate increase. • Scenario 6 — This scenario incorporates the revenues and expenses associated with a hypothetical transfer station constructed and operated by Orange County and centrally located (Eubanks Road area) to current County solid waste operations and the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, and Hillsborough. For purposes of the Model, revenues and expense assumptions remain the same as in Scenario 1, and the approximated annual net revenue from the transfer station is calculated and added to current revenues as shown in Hypothetical Transfer Station Net Revenue Estimate (Appendix G). This scenario then assesses the required Program Fee to balance the Fund's annual budget and thus serves a break -even analysis. • Scenario 7 — This scenario mimics Scenario 1 ( "Status Quo ") but assumes a "phasing -out" of the annual General Fund Contribution and a gradual increase of the Program Fee over the next 5 years. The respective Program Fee and General Fund Contribution figures used for FY 2016 -17 through FY 2020 -21 are shown in Exhibit 12. Exhibit 12. Scenario 7 Phase -Out of General Fund Contribution and Increase of Solid Waste Programs Fee Revenue Source FY 2016 -17 FY 2017 -18 FY 2018 -19 FY 2019 -20 FY 2020 -21 Solid Waste Programs Fee $107 $148.42 $158.63 $157.79 $186.14 General Fund Contribution $2,004,719 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 With the exception of Scenario 7, the six Model scenarios each have two iterations (sub - scenarios) as described below: • Sub - Scenarios A, modeled without General Fund Contribution; and, • Sub - Scenarios B, modeled with General Fund contribution. Note that Scenario 6, the transfer station scenario, includes additional sub - scenarios A.1, A.2, B.1, and B.2. The sub - scenarios 1 and 2 correspond to hypothetical transfer station operations in which waste is accepted from 1) only Orange County and the three Towns and 2) Orange County, the three Towns, and other waste disposers, respectively. 2.1.8 Model Results Exhibit 13 shows the Modeled Budgetary Gap for the initial iteration for each of these seven scenarios, which reflects sub - scenario "A" (without General Fund contribution). In addition to developing the Test Year revenue requirements, SCS forecasted the annual revenue requirement 20