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12 <br />Orange County, NC <br />Financial Plan and Rate Study for Solid Waste Enterprise Fund <br />The table below (and also in Section 2.1.9, Exhibit 14) shows the break -even Program Fees for <br />each of the sub - scenarios under Scenarios 4 and 6 for FY 2016 -17 through FY 2020 -21. Note <br />that in Scenarios 4 and 6, the Program Fee was back - calculated using an optimization algorithm. <br />Complete financial model results highlighting the Fund's projected annual net revenue /deficits <br />are presented in Appendix F and the Model input parameters and results for Hypothetical <br />Transfer Station Net Revenue Estimate are presented in Appendix G. <br />Scenario 4 and 6 Modeling Results — Projected Annual Program Fee <br />Required <br />Scenario <br />FY <br />2016 -17 <br />FY <br />2017 -18 <br />FY <br />2018 -19 <br />FY <br />2019 -20 <br />FY <br />2020 -21 <br />4 — Break Even <br />4A — w/o General Fund Contribution <br />$170 <br />$173 <br />$173 <br />$177 <br />$180 <br />4B — w/ General Fund Contribution <br />$137 <br />$140 <br />$141 <br />$145 <br />$148 <br />6 — Construct a TS Scenario <br />6A — w/o General Fund, w/o Appropriated Fund Balance Contribution <br />6A.1 — OC & Town Waste Only <br />$172 <br />$175 <br />$175 <br />$178 <br />$181 <br />6A.2 — OC, Town, & Other Waste <br />$171 <br />$173 <br />$173 <br />$177 <br />$180 <br />6B — w/ General Fund, w/o Appropriated Fund Balance Contribution <br />6B.1 — OC & Town Waste Only <br />$139 <br />$142 <br />$142 <br />$146 <br />$149 <br />6B.2 — OC, Town, & Other Waste <br />$137 <br />$141 <br />$141 <br />$145 <br />$148 <br />Program Fee reduction by implementing TS w /OC, Town, & Other Waste (for first 5 years): <$2 <br />FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br />Our findings and recommendations, including revenue increase strategies, expense reduction <br />strategies, and rate benchmarking from the Study are presented in Section 5 and summarized <br />below. SCS offers the following findings and recommendations for the County's consideration: <br />• As outlined in Scenario 1, the Fund's current financial structure is unsustainable and <br />maintaining the current Program Fee amount ($107) along with the Status Quo <br />program services will yield significant annual deficits over the next 5 -year period, <br />both with the current practice of General Fund contributions (Scenario B) and without <br />(Scenario A). <br />• The exercise of allocating monies from the Fund's balance ( "Reserves ") to cover the <br />annual budget deficit each year will deplete the entire Fund balance in approximately <br />5 years. Furthermore, this jeopardizes Fund liabilities such as landfill post- closure <br />care. <br />ES -5 <br />