Agenda - 09-06-2018 Item 2 - Additional Discussion Regarding the Election Method for Members of the Orange County Board of Commissioners

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P� During the March 28th discussion, the Board asked for additional information on several items. Those items are addressed below and /or in concert with Attachments B through I. 1) Keeping all other aspects of the current Commissioner election method intact, what is the approval process for a change from the current district residency /district nomination /countywide election method for Commissioners — to a district residency /district nomination /district election method? A change from the current district residency /district nomination /countywide election method for Commissioners — to a district residency /district nomination /district election method — would require Board approval of a resolution detailing the change and authorizing a countywide voter referendum on the proposed change. If the voters approved the proposed change, the Board of Commissioners could then consider a resolution implementing the change. If voters did not approve the change, no further action on the matter would occur. At no time would this potential change require review or approval by the North Carolina General Assembly. 2) What is the party affiliation for current voter registration countywide and by the two current Commissioner electoral districts? Staff has provided a map as Attachment B summarizing the party affiliation for current voter registration countywide and by the two current Commissioner electoral districts. 3) Can staff review the annual population projections published by the American Community Survey (ACS) and provide information on the population trends for both Commissioner districts - since the 2010 Census - in anticipation of the 2020 Census? Staff reviewed 2010 Census data and the most recent population estimates from the American Community Survey. The 2010 Census detailed population numbers are based on more precise block level delineations (Attachment C). Conversely, the ACS develops its population projections at a larger block group level, with each block group consisting of multiple Census blocks (Attachment D). The block group areas in some cases consist of land areas larger than the towns in the County. Additionally, while block boundaries align more directly with the Commissioner electoral districts, the larger block group level boundaries vary substantially from the current Commissioner electoral district lines. The ACS 5 -Year estimates utilize 5 years of collected data to produce estimates based on the block group level. It should also be noted that the ACS data are only estimates based on sampling and are not as accurate as the decennial Census data. For example the 2010 Census population for Orange County was 133,801. Conversely, the 2010 ACS (5- year), a 5 year period prior to the 2016 ACS, estimated the County's population at 129,562. This equates to 3.22% lower than the actual 2010 Census. The 2016 ACS may similarly underrepresent the 2016 population, but is statistically relevant. Using the 2016 ACS 5 -year data (the most current data available from ACS), staff developed estimates of the population for the two BOCC voting districts. Unfortunately, as noted previously, the block group boundaries do not follow the current BOCC electoral districts (figure 1). There are six block groups that are split by the voting districts.