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Appendix E <br />Estimate of Build -out <br />Based solely on the availability of undeveloped land and estimated demand, the <br />Hillsborough and Mebane /Efland Transition Areas should be capable of <br />accommodating residential development for the next 15 -20 years. However, <br />there are other constraints, such as public water capacities, that may play a <br />larger role in limiting development in Transition Areas beyond the availability of <br />land suitable for development. <br />There are many assumptions used in the methodology to determine build -out, <br />including the assumption that development trends will remain constant. <br />Therefore, development within the Transition Areas should be monitored <br />carefully and the location of Transition Areas revisited periodically. <br />Table 3 provides the data and process used to estimate build -out of the County's <br />Transition Areas. <br />Table 3 <br />Orange County Transition Areas <br />Build -out Estimate <br />Sq Mi in Transition Areas (Urbanizing) <br />9.2 <br />Acres in Transition Areas (Urbanizing) <br />5,914 <br />Acres Undeveloped <br />4,525 <br />Acres Undeveloped and for Residential Uses* <br />3,958 <br />Acres Developed <br />1,389 <br />Acres Undeveloped and Assumed Developable 80% of Total <br />3,166 <br />Potential Units in Transition Areas (Urbanizing), 2 dwellings per ac. <br />61333 <br />Potential Units in Transition Areas (Urbanizing), 1.5 dwellings per ac. <br />4,749 <br />Years before build -out at 4 dwellings per ac. (12,6641315) <br />40 <br />Years before build out at 3 dwellings per ac. 9,4981315 <br />30 <br />Years before build -out at 2 dwellings per ac. 6,3331315 <br />20 <br />Years before build -out at 1.5 dwellings per ac. (4,7491315) <br />1 ^- --- -_ n .. .1. <br />15 <br />1 A ED^ r rr, <br />Source: Urange uouniy riarmmy di iu Jj IJPt-,L,uv110 011u 1yj ""u y �^• • ^ - -- - <br />*Excludes 567 undeveloped acres that are classified as "Commercial- Industrial Transition Activity <br />Node" in the County's existing Comprehensive Plan <br />Assumptions: <br />• Assumes that 80% of undeveloped acreage will be suitable /available for development, <br />based on County -wide soils data and an approximation of area required for <br />utilities /easements <br />• Assumes density in the Transition Areas will closely mimic that experienced in the <br />incorporated areas of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, and Hillsborough, 1.5 dwellings per acre in <br />2000 Census <br />G: \Comprehensive Planning Div\TAltieri \land use element \OC HLSB UTA Task Force \Draft Report\Appendix E 020105.doc <br />