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8 <br /> <br />Figure 8. Job Growth Rates (% Change) in North Carolina Regions, 2010-2017. <br /> <br />Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, based nonfarm employment from February 2010 (low point of job market) <br />to October 2017 (latest available data) using seasonally-adjusted data. Rural NC includes counties outside the <br />listed metropolitan areas. <br /> <br /> <br /> Figure 9 provides similar information for the regions grouped into size categories. In <br />2017 the large and medium sized regions had the fastest job growth. Indeed, the five largest <br />metropolitan areas in the state accounted for 83% of the state’s payroll job growth in 2017. <br /> <br />Forecasts <br /> The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (Figure 10) has <br />followed a modest upward trend since late 2015, suggesting gradual improvement in economic <br />growth into the early months of 2018. Importantly, there is no indication of a downward trend in <br />the Index, thus suggesting no occurrence of a recession in the immediate future. As Figure 10 <br />shows, the Index was successful in predicting the 2007-2009 Great Recession by over a six- <br />month lead. <br /> <br />-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 <br />Rocky Mt <br />Goldsboro <br />Fayetteville <br />Jacksonville <br />New Bern <br />Rural NC <br />Greenville <br />Hickory <br />Greensboro <br />Winston-Sal <br />Burlington <br />State <br />Durham <br />Asheville <br />Wilmington <br />Raleigh <br />Charlotte <br />% <br />15