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<br />ii <br /> <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2017-18 School Year – Orange County Schools <br /> <br />(The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2017-2018 in that given year. The second column for each <br />year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An “L” indicates the projection was low compared to <br />the actual, whereas an “H” indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2017-18 Membership <br /> Actual 2017 <br />Membership 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 <br />Elementary 3183 3654 H471 3627 H444 3234 H51 3308 H125 3253 H70 <br />Middle 1730 1824 H94 1862 H132 1782 H52 1776 H46 1751 H21 <br />High 2445 2472 H27 2533 H88 2581 H136 2539 H94 2480 H35 <br /> <br />D. Student Membership Growth Rate ....................................(Change) ..............Pg. 38 <br /> <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year Projection <br />Made: 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2016-17 <br />Elementary 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 0.91% 0.36% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% 0.51% 0.58% <br />Middle 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 0.95% 0.21% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% 0.36% 0.13% <br />High 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 0.72% 0% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% 0.22% -0.10% <br /> <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change) ........Pg. 41 <br /> <br /> <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> <br />Elementary School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 97.5%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br />but remain positive (average ~0.36% per year compared to 1.15% over the past 10 <br />years). <br />C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br />School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> <br />Middle School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 96.2%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br />but remain positive (average ~0.21% compared to an average of 1.15% over the past <br />10 years). <br />C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br />School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> <br />High School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard (current LOS is 101.3%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br />(average ~0.0% compared to 0.59% over the past 10 years). <br />11