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Section II <br /> 32 <br /> <br /> <br />school year. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.07% to +2.80%. In the <br />Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential <br />development than in the Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of <br />new families in older, existing housing stock. The need for an additional Elementary School is <br />not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year’s projections. <br /> <br />Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs <br />continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. <br />Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level will continue to be reviewed <br />and discussed in the coming year. <br /> <br />Middle <br />The previous year (2016-17) projections for November 2017 for this level were overestimated by <br />21 students. The actual membership increased by 6 students. Over the previous ten years, <br />growth has varied widely and includes decreases in student membership in four of the ten years. <br />Growth rates during this period have ranged from -2.20% to +4.00%. The district’s third Middle <br />School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an additional <br />Middle School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year’s <br />projections. <br /> <br />High School <br />The previous year (2016-2017) projections for November 2017 for this level were overestimated <br />by 35 students. The actual membership decreased by 1 student. Over the previous ten years, <br />growth was positive before experiencing a decrease in membership in 2009-10. Following this <br />decrease, membership and growth rates increased every school year before experiencing <br />additional decreases in 2015-16, 2016-17, and this school year. Growth rates during this period <br />ranged from -1.32% to 4.58%. In 2011-12 student membership increased by 32 while capacity <br />decreased by 199 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. Department of Public <br />Instruction (DPI) study. Similar to last year’s projections, the need for additional capacity at <br />Cedar Ridge High School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. However, to <br />address public safety concerns with the current high school capacity exceeding the 100% <br />threshold, Orange County Schools is in preliminary planning stages to expand Cedar Ridge High <br />School from initial capacity of 1,000 students to1,500 students for the 2020-21 school year. <br /> <br />48