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Section II <br /> 29 <br /> <br /> <br />C. Student Membership Projections <br /> <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change – The updating of this section will be <br />conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br />Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br />certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br />comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br />2. Definition – The result of the average of the five student projection models <br />represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level <br />(Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill/Carrboro City <br />School District and Orange County School District). <br />3. Standard for: Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br />The 5 model average discussed in Section <br />II.B (Student Projection Methodology) <br />See Attachment II.C.4 <br />The 5 model average discussed in Section <br />II.B (Student Projection Methodology) <br />See Attachment II.C.3 <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br />The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br />at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools’ elementary school level and at the Orange <br />County Schools’ elementary and high school levels. The attachments show an <br />increase at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools’ middle and high school levels and <br />Orange County Schools’ middle school level. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools and <br />Orange County Schools projected average annual growth rates have all decreased <br />since the previous year. The projected annual growth rates show positive and <br />negative growth for all three levels in the 10-year projection period. Attachment <br />II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year by year percent growth and projected level of <br />service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current (November 15, <br />2017) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />45