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Section II <br /> 28 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br />School Membership 2017-2018 School Year (November 15, 2017) <br /> <br />Statistical Findings <br /> <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />‘TISCHLER’ LINEAR (T) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> <br />Elementary School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were all high ranging from 53 students to 119 students above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were 83 students higher than the actual <br />membership. <br /> The actual membership decreased by 45 students between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />Middle School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were mixed, ranging from 26 students below to 60 students above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were 14 students higher than the actual <br />membership. <br /> The actual membership increased by 4 students between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />High School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were all low, ranging from 77 to 115 students below actual membership. On <br />average, the projections were 95 students lower than the actual membership. <br /> The actual membership increased by 165 students between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />TOTAL <br /> <br /> The total of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 61 students below to <br />55 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 2 students <br />higher than the actual membership. <br /> The membership increased in total by 124 students, which is the sum of -45 at <br />Elementary, +4 at Middle, and +165 at High. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Attachment II.B.3 – Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2017-18) <br />(Page 4 of 4) <br /> <br />44