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Section II <br /> 26 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Orange County School District <br />School Membership 2017-2018 School Year (November 15, 2017) <br /> <br />Statistical Findings <br /> <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />‘TISCHLER’ LINEAR (T) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> <br />Elementary School Level <br /> <br /> The projections were all high, ranging from 5 students to 152 students above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were 70 students higher than the actual <br />membership. <br /> The membership actually decreased by 110 students between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />Middle School Level <br /> <br /> The majority of projections were all high, ranging from 14 students to 33 students above <br />actual membership. On average, the projections were 21 students higher than the <br />actual membership. <br /> The membership actually increased by 6 students between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />High School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were all high, ranging from 27 to 48 students above actual membership. On <br />average, the projections were 35 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> The membership actually decreased by 1 student between November 14, 2016 and <br />November 15, 2017. <br /> <br />TOTAL <br /> <br /> The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 62 to 200 students <br />above actual membership. On average, the projections were 126 students higher than <br />the actual membership. <br /> The membership decreased in total by 105 students, which is the sum of -110 at <br />Elementary, +6 at Middle, and -1 at High. <br /> <br /> <br />Attachment II.B.3 – Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2017-18) <br />(Page 2 of 4) <br /> <br />42