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Section II <br /> 24 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br />School Membership 2016-2017 School Year (November 15, 2016) <br /> <br />Statistical Findings <br /> <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />‘TISCHLER’ LINEAR (T) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> <br /> <br />Elementary School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were mixed, ranging from 65 students below to 35 students above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were 15 students lower than the actual <br />membership. <br /> The actual membership increased by 66 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />Middle School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were mixed, ranging from 54 students below to 54 students above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were 1 student higher than the actual <br />membership. <br /> The actual membership decreased by 15 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />High School Level <br /> <br /> The majority of projections were low, ranging from 30 to 5 students below actual <br />membership. One projection was 30 students above actual membership. On average, <br />the projections were 5 students lower than the actual membership. <br /> The actual membership increased by 61 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />TOTAL <br /> <br /> The total of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 149 students below to <br />114 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 19 students <br />lower than the actual membership. <br /> The membership increased in total by 112 students, which is the sum of +66 at <br />Elementary, -15 at Middle, and +61 at High. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Attachment II.B.2 – Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2016-17) <br />(Page 4 of 4) <br />40