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Section II <br /> 22 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Orange County School District <br />School Membership 2016-2017 School Year (November 15, 2016) <br /> <br />Statistical Findings <br /> <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />‘TISCHLER’ LINEAR (T) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> <br />Elementary School Level <br /> <br /> The projections were mixed low to high, ranging from 5 students below to 83 students <br />above actual membership. On average, the projections were 32 students higher than <br />the actual membership. <br /> The membership actually decreased by 25 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />Middle School Level <br /> <br /> The majority of projections were all high, ranging from 2 students to 45 students above <br />actual membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the <br />projections were 19 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> The membership actually decreased by 15 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />High School Level <br /> <br /> Projections were all high, ranging from 32 to 73 students above actual membership. On <br />average, the projections were 58 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> The membership actually decreased by 23 students between November 13, 2015 and <br />November 15, 2016. <br /> <br />TOTAL <br /> <br /> The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 54 to 193 students <br />above actual membership. On average, the projections were 109 students higher than <br />the actual membership. <br /> The membership decreased in total by 63 students, which is the sum of -25 at <br />Elementary, -15 at Middle, and -23 at High. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Attachment II.B.2 – Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2016-17) <br />(Page 2 of 4) <br />38