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Section II <br /> 19 <br /> <br /> <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology <br /> <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change – This section is reviewed and <br />recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br />Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br />2. Definition – The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future <br />years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, <br />Middle, and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals <br />at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as <br />‘models’. <br />3. Standard for: Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br />Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year <br />history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and <br />Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br />Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is <br />in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity <br />shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond <br />proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a <br />description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models <br />for the 2015-16 school year from the prior year projection. <br />5. Recommendation: <br />More than fifteen years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the <br />accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district <br />while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is <br />recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately <br />quantify. In all areas of the county, proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO <br />projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in <br />November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />35