Agenda 8-c - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) – Receipt and Transmittal of 2018 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report

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8. Student Generation Rates The updated student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1 on page 43 of the report. Updated rates began to be used for CAPS issuances in the fall of 2015 and are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. 9. Access to Full Report The draft SAPFOTAC report will be posted on the Orange County Planning Department’s web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. It is anticipated the draft 2018 SAPFOTAC report will be brought back to the BOCC for certification at the May 15, 2018 regular meeting. 10. Additional Information There are two primary parts to the SAPFO system. The first part, Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS), is the testing and gaging of the student generation rate (SGR) from development projects against available capacity within the schools. The second part, student projections and capacity needs assessment, is the tracking of historical enrollment and the projection of future student enrollment against existing capacity at a certain school level. This part is not directly related to a development project, but a current year outcome of how many children actually ‘show up’ in a school year. This includes new students that also come from existing housing stock. The purpose of explaining these two parts of the SAPFO system is to illustrate how projects can be approved as part of the CAPS system when capacity is available yet aberration in actual enrollment can cause future year projections to accelerate capital needs dramatically. The 10-year student projections developed for the SAPFO Annual Report forecast future school needs based on current student membership numbers and historic growth rates derived by the five projection models. The process accounting for students once they are actually enrolled in the school system emphasizes a delay that exists from the time a residential development is approved and developed to when students begin to enter the system. For example, the proposed residential growth that has occurred in the recent past within Mebane’s jurisdiction has yet to be seen with OCS student membership numbers and fully entered into the historically based projection methods. Orange County staff will continue to work with the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee and our planning partners to monitor future residential development throughout Orange County. In summary, although the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee report does not show immediate capital needs, the development approvals in both school districts will, after a normal lag, accelerate capital school needs and renovations based on localized student increases at specific schools. These local impacts will have to be analyzed by the school district to determine the best method to resolve new demands (i.e. redistricting, renovation, new school construction, etc.). FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current student growth projections do not show capacity needs for additional schools in either the CHCCS District or OCS District during the 10-year projection period. 4