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<br />Orange County Comprehensive Parks and Recreation Master Plan
<br /> CHAPTER 5 - Demographics and Driving Factors 5
<br />D. Population Projections to the Year 2030
<br />
<br />In the adopted 2030 Comprehensive Plan for Orange
<br />County, Section C of the “Orange County Profile
<br />Element” contains an assessment of population
<br />projections. Several different methodologies were
<br />examined in that section, all of which yielded some-
<br />what different projections for the future. This
<br />analysis was done prior to the existence of the 2010
<br />U.S. Census data, so it is now possible to look at how
<br />the different methodologies performed for the first
<br />decade of 2000-2010.
<br />
<br />Table 5-5 shows the projected population by
<br />township for Orange County in 2010, 2020 and 2030
<br />– which is also the target date for this plan.
<br />
<br />The methodology which most-closely matched the
<br />actual Orange County population growth through
<br />2010 is the “average 10-year linear” projection
<br />model. This method, the “medium” set of projec-
<br />tions among the three examined, predicted that the
<br />Table 5-5 – Orange County Population Projections 2010-2030
<br />County would have 134,770 persons in 2010 (actual
<br />was 133,801), and predicts 154,009 for the year
<br />2020 and 173,248 persons by the year 2030.
<br />
<br />This data is reflected in Table 5-E (replacing the 2010
<br />projections with actual 2010 US Census data):
<br />
<br />Two important caveats must be added about these
<br />population projections. First, population projections
<br />are expected assumptions based on past historical
<br />trends, and may be affected by economic changes,
<br />migration and mobility, and other factors. Even
<br />though the methodology used above was the closest
<br />fit to the actual county results in 2010, it may not
<br />hold true for future decades, and as such, all
<br />projections must be used with an understanding
<br />that actual results will change. It is possible that the
<br />projected 173,248 figure for 2030 may be lower or
<br />higher depending on long-term trends and driving
<br />factors.
<br />Township
<br />(Municipality)
<br />2010
<br />(US Census)
<br />2020
<br />Projection
<br />2030
<br />Projection
<br />ORANGE COUNTY - TOTAL 133,801 154,009 173,248
<br />
<br />BINGHAM TWP 6,527 8,409 9,523
<br />CEDAR GROVE TWP 5,222 6,694 7,576
<br />CHAPEL HILL TWP 87,971 102,584 115,587
<br />Town of Chapel Hill (OC pt) 54,397 56,166 62,198
<br />Town of Carrboro 19,582 26,048 30,681
<br />Unincorporated 13,992 20,372 22,711
<br />CHEEKS 9,313 9,308 10,430
<br />City of Mebane (OC pt) 1,793 971 1,119
<br />Unincorporated 7,520 8,337 9,311
<br />ENO TWP 7,501 7,734 8,555
<br />HILLSBOROUGH TWP 13,809 14,679 16,199
<br />Town of Hillsborough 6,087 7,874 9,088
<br />Unincorporated 7,722 6,807 7,114
<br />LITTLE RIVER TWP 3,458 4,601 5,376
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