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56 choose STPP projects. STPP or Strategic Transportation Prioritization Process is a gateway into NCDOT 57 methodology for funding projects in the transportation approval program. Funding plans are stretched out over 10 58 years, in these cases. The MTP lists highway transit and bicycle and pedestrian projects to address deficiencies 59 through the year 2045. The plan is based on future land use, population, employment and the travel demand model 60 (to be discussed later in the presentation), and a financial plan. Projects must be in the MTP to get federal funding to 61 then move into the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). Planners used to use the MTP to reserve right -of- 62 way for future roadways. Mr. Henry reviewed the process of creating the MTP, breaking down various analyses, 63 projections, and the creating of key alternatives for addressing congestion. The MPO will release its draft, referred to 64 as its "preferred option," in October. This draft will go back out for public input, at which time the OUTBoard can also 65 make additional comments. The plan and report will likely be approved by December 2017 or January 2018. Another 66 part of the process is running the alternatives analysis in consideration of land use and transportation networks. The 67 alternatives are put through the Triangle Regional Model to see how well the alternatives meet future demand. The 68 alternatives are not presented singularly; projects will be taken out from the various alternatives for the final plan. Mr. 69 Henry went over the process of creating alternatives in more depth. He said that they take two land use scenarios; 70 one is the community plan, based on local comprehensive land use plans, and the other is the "aim high" plan where 71 higher density scenarios are examined in the urbanized areas, like around proposed light rail stations. These plans 72 are combined with a transportation network with lots of highway projects, along with one with fewer highway projects 73 and more transit, and then a network that balances highway and transit. These combinations inform the alternatives. 74 For land use, guide totals for population and employment are put into the land use model and then the model 75 distributes the population - employment around the counties to see where they think it will go. Looking at Orange 76 County, the population is currently about 139,000 people. In 2045 it is estimated to be 194,000, a 40 percent 77 increase. Employment -wise, there are currently about 64,000 jobs in Orange County. In 2045, there will be about 78 107,000 jobs, a 68 percent increase. Employment is increasing faster than population in Orange County, a pattern in 79 all the other counties in the MPO as well. 80 81 Erle Smith asked how Mr. Henry figured a 28 percent disparity between population growth and employment growth. 82 This suggests a pretty high unemployment rate. 83 84 Andy Henry answered that this figure is based on the growth rate. The County will continue to attract workers from 85 other counties . 86 87 Erle Smith said that Orange County was like a salary seat. 88 89 Andy Henry commented that it is evident in the mornings on NC -54 and 15 -501 with traffic being very high that a lot 90 of people are coming in to work at UNC and other places. 91 92 David Laudicina asked if the employment forecast takes into consideration what the Research Triangle is trying to do, 93 which is to add 110,000 new jobs, generating a huge amount of service jobs. 94 95 Andy Henry answered that the population total is from the NC demographer and is broken -out by county (20 year 96 projection). The MPO stretches that total out to 30 years to get its figures. The employment figures were from Woods 97 and Poole, a private company dealing with economic and demographic projections out to 2050. 98 99 David Laudicina said that those population projections could be conservative. 100 101 Andy Henry responded that upon revisiting some of the projection forecasts, sometimes the projections seem either 102 lower or higher, depending on what people expect. 103 104 Alex Castro asked why parts of Chatham County are included even though Chatham County is outside of the MPO. 105 106 Andy Henry responded that the MPO does include a small portion of Chatham County in its planning area. He added 107 that MPO models the whole Triangle region in two ways: the travel demand model and the land use model, inclusive 108 of 10 counties. The model extends to Siler City in Chatham County. 109