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CFE agenda 091117
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CFE agenda 091117
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9/11/2017
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CFE minutes 091117
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impacts of recent climate change on populations and <br />species. It is also increasingly apparent that not all <br />species respond in identical ways, creating the poten- <br />tial for mismatches in the timing of events or spatial <br />associations within ecosystems. Regional differenc- <br />es in the magnitude of climate change may further <br />complicate the population dynamics of certain <br />species, such as long distance migrants, that depend <br />on the environmental conditions of more than one <br />area (Stenseth and Mysterud 2002). <br />Phenological events, such as the timing of flowering, <br />the onset of breeding, or the timing of migration, <br />have typically evolved through natural selection to <br />match environmental conditions. These seasonal life <br />cycle events are generally tied to environmental cues, <br />and a growing number of studies have documented <br />changes in phenology in response to recent climate <br />change (e.g., see McCarty 2001, Walther et al. 2002, <br />Parmesan and Yohe 2003, Root et al. 2003, Parme- <br />san 2006 for reviews). However, as local conditions <br />drive phenological events, it is regional changes in <br />climate, rather than global changes, that are likely to <br />be more relevant in the context of species and habitat <br />responses to climate change (Walther et al. 2002). <br />Differences in the rate and magnitude of change <br />across the globe will contribute to heterogeneity <br />in ecological dynamics across systems, potentially <br />disrupting interactions across trophic levels as well <br />as co- evolved relationships such as pollination and <br />seed dispersal. <br />Long -term data sets from Europe and North Amer- <br />ica document phenological changes across taxa, <br />including timing of flowering and leaf out in plants, <br />first appearance of butterflies, initiation of breed- <br />ing in birds, timing of phytoplankton blooms, and <br />choruses or spawning of amphibians (McCarty <br />2001, Parmesan 2006), which are generally associ- <br />ated with warmer temperatures and earlier onset of <br />growing seasons in northern latitudes. Across species <br />and regions, these observed advances in phenological <br />timing range from a day or less to several weeks per <br />decade (McCarty 2001, Table 1 -1). However, not <br />all species will have the capacity to respond rapidly <br />to climate change, and this variability in response <br />has the potential to disrupt correlations with other <br />ecological factors. For example, population declines <br />in the migratory pied flycatcher (Ficeclula hypoleu- <br />ca) in the Netherlands have been associated with a <br />mismatch between the timing of breeding and their <br />main food supply (Both et al. 2006). Populations <br />have declined by 90% in areas in which the peak in <br />caterpillar abundance in spring has started earlier <br />than the birds' breeding date. The laying dates of <br />resident great tits (Tarus major) have not advanced in <br />concert with the availability of insects and peak food <br />demands for food and thus face a similar mismatch <br />(Visser et al. 1998). <br />Shifts in the timing of emergence or arrival in <br />response to climate change may also have repercus- <br />sions on competitive interactions within and among <br />populations of species. For example, Winkler et <br />al. (2002) found that laying dates in tree swal- <br />lows (Tachycineta bicolor) were more constricted in <br />warmer years. Greater synchrony of hatching dates <br />among nests in warmer years may result in increased <br />
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