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species there is evidence of Lepidoptera expansion of northern boundaries in Finland, Great Britain, and Europe, northern range expansion of 23 of 24 Odonata species in the United Kingdom, range expansions and contractions in songbirds, and colo- nization of an additional 77 lichen species in more northerly locations in the Netherlands. In montane regions, lowland birds are shifting to higher eleva- tions in Monteverde National Park Costa Rica, and the treeline has shifted upslope in Siberia and the Canadian Rockies. Montane species adapted to cooler high elevation sites are becoming locally extinct in the lower elevations of their range, includ- ing Edith's checkerspot butterfly (Euphyclryas eclitha, Mexico to Canada), Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo, France), and the pika (Ochotona princeps, in the Great Basin of the Western U.S.). Additionally, entire forest ecosystems and plant communities are expected to change as tree species shift their ranges poleward and upslope in response to climate change. Some common forest types such as oak - hickory may expand while others such as maple- beech -birch are expected to contract and spruce -fir forests may disappear altogether (Karl et al. 2009). Pests, pathogens, and invasive species will also respond to climate change by shifting their distri- butions. Invasive species will have a competitive Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Predicted Range Expansion A spatial representation of the predicted future range expansion for hemlock woolly adelgid was created by estimating spread rates from historical records and using these estimates to predict future spread. Presence was based upon visual detection of life stages by pest management personnel. Historical records were available for 1951, 1971, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2002. A GIS was used to calculate the minimum distance of each county to the area initially infested. The rate of spread was estimated as the slope of the least squares linear regression model describing the relationship between each county's distance from the initially infested area and the time until the pest was established in the county. Due to the visibly anisotropic spread of hemlock woolly adelgid ( Souto et al., 1996), the minimum distance of each county to the area initially infested was measured separately in the east /west- and north /south- direction. Thus, two linear models of the distance of the county as a function of its time of first infestation were used to estimate two spread rates. Historical spread of hemlock woolly adelgid in the east /west direction was estimated at 3.6 km /year± 0.2 km /year (r2 =0.60) and in the north /south direction was estimated at 5.8 km /year ± 0.28 km /year (r2= 0.66). Souto, D., Luther, T, Chianese, B., 1996. Past and current status of HWA in eastern and Carolina hemlock stands. In: Salom, S.M., Tignor, T.C., Reardon, R.C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the First Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Review, USDA For. Service, Morgantown, WV, pp. 9 -15. III�I 900 900 u V �q Proportion of years with Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Infestation through 2025. 0 No Data 0 -0.2 0 0.2 -0.4 0 0.4 -0.6 ® 0.6 -0.8 0.8 -1 1800 Kilometers ts Map Produced by: USDA Forest Service Randall Morin Northeastern Research Station Figure 1 -6. Hemlock wooly adelgid (Aclelges tsugae) predicted range expansion in North America based on historic rates of spread (Source: USDA Forest Service 2010). W000ly adelgid have already experienced range expansion since 1951, and are expected to expand further based on historic rates of spread. Warmer winters associated with climate change may enhance wooly adelgid overwintering success.