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<br />C. Parmesan, 2006
<br />There is now scientific consensus that global
<br />warming is caused by increases in green-
<br />house gas emissions that are higher today
<br />than they have been at any other time in the last
<br />650,000 years (IPCC 2007). The scientific evidence
<br />is overwhelming, with numerous independent stud-
<br />ies showing patterns of increase in global average air
<br />and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
<br />and ice, and rising global sea level. The last decade
<br />was the warmest on record since weather records
<br />began in the 1880s (Arndt et al. 2009), and global
<br />average temperatures have increased 0.4 °F (0.2 °C)
<br />per decade since the 1970s (IPCC 2007).
<br />Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
<br />current rates will lead to further global warming
<br />during the 21st century, which would very likely be
<br />greater than that observed during the 20th century
<br />(IPCC 2007). The global warming trend has accel-
<br />erated in recent decades, and the pace of climate
<br />change projected this century is occurring faster
<br />than most managed ecosystems have experienced
<br />previously (Barnosky et al. 2003). It is likely that
<br />rates of climate change will be more rapid than most
<br />species can adapt to through evolutionary changes or
<br />migration to more favorable climate locations
<br />(Davis and Shaw 2001, Pearson 2006). These
<br />projected changes threaten our conservation invest-
<br />ments — which to date have existed mostly in the
<br />form of isolated protected areas and mandated
<br />management goals for species and ecosystems based
<br />on historical targets (Heller and Zavaleta 2009).
<br />Most natural resource planning, management, and
<br />monitoring methodologies that are in place today
<br />are still based on the assumption that climate, species
<br />distributions, and ecological processes will remain
<br />stable. Approaches to conservation in a climate
<br />changed future will need to be dynamic, address
<br />changes across spatial and temporal scales, and incor-
<br />porate flexibility to continue refinement as informa-
<br />tion increases (Hansen et al. 2010). Under climate
<br />change, natural resource agencies may be forced
<br />to adjust timeframes, plan for alternative future
<br />scenarios, and revise resource management plans or
<br />actions more often than in the past. In this chapter,
<br />we provide a review of the fundamental components
<br />of climate change science, such as climate model-
<br />ing, functional and physical impacts on wildlife and
<br />habitat, and vulnerability. This review can serve as a
<br />baseline for understanding the latest climate science
<br />as well as provide a framework for thinking about
<br />how wildlife species and habitats may respond to
<br />climatic shifts.
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<br />S cen ar 111 oWir
<br />In order to predict and prepare for the impacts of
<br />climate change on natural systems, it is necessary to
<br />have a basic understanding of the science of climate
<br />change. Climate is the accumulation of daily and
<br />seasonal weather events, over weeks, months, years,
<br />and longer. It is measured in the long -term aver-
<br />ages of weather variables and departures of weather
<br />variables from normal. Weather is the condition
<br />of the atmosphere at any particular moment in
<br />time and place, and is the day -to -day state of the
<br />atmosphere.
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