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r( ireff lle r Si atireff ILiIn iit4n e haireov �ui11(ll I�r4n �J Cis o n W11ff 11.11it1�, <br />1.1 Climate Models and Emissions Scenarios .......... ..............................1 <br />1.1.1 Downscaling climate models for use at the regional scale ...................... 5 <br />1.2 Overview of Impacts of Climate Change on Species and Habitats .................... 7 <br />1.2.1 Climate Change Impacts on Community Composition ..................... 7 <br />1.2.2 Climate Change Impacts on Phenology and Biotic Interactions .............. 10 <br />1.2.3 Species and Ecosystem Vulnerability .... ............................... 14 <br />:�' l.� will u� lll� "n���uiGl�ll�� <br />111"nip,1" l's clin 'Spe i s lhobi t,,jts 23 <br />2.1 Projected Temperature Changes in the Southeast . ............................... 23 <br />2.1.1 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Temperature Shifts on <br />Species and Habitats ................ ............................... 25 <br />2.2 Projected Precipitation Changes in the Southeast . ............................... 29 <br />2.2.1 Storms and Severe Weather Events ...... ............................... 32 <br />2.2.2 Hydrology ........................ ............................... 33 <br />2.2.3 Additional Considerations for Aquatic Systems ........................... 39 <br />2.2.4 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Precipitation and Hydrologic Shifts <br />on Species and Habitats .............. ............................... 40 <br />2.3 Sea Level Rise .............................. ............................... 41 <br />2.3.1 Future Global Projections ............ ............................... 42 <br />2.3.2 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on <br />Species and Habitats ................ ............................... 42 <br />3 Pirojjea,red hn1llao "s of("Ifliirmllie( "Jharrgov irni 5 <br />3.1 Temperature Change Projections for North Carolina ............................. 53 <br />3.1.1 Potential Impacts of Temperature Shifts on Species and Habitats in <br />NorthCarolina .................... ............................... 56 <br />3.2 Precipitation Change Projections for North Carolina ............................. 60 <br />3.2.1 Potential Impacts of Precipitation and Hydrology Shifts on Species and <br />Habitats in North Carolina ........... ............................... 63 <br />3.3 Sea Level Rise Projections for North Carolina .... ............................... 65 <br />3.3.1 Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Species and Habitats in <br />NorthCarolina .................... ............................... 69 <br />