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Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 I(� I +D" T19 Rofisfrt New wr9 4Ya rw7aa;9Yla!wmYwrrr 40, r,, rnr fw %' Yry' Ik +Vw w u r �nawwn�w �? YJ � r 92,7, to, 3 i V ar+ rt��ouwa�N�� 1 Rw(fuvru ' wZ� M,,wwiN xw Mppmymw 0"6 P21awwUicNwan � �a�,wmadtl �;�o'� YFru9wk`rOw1 AaryfRllW a s,wx 3f�1 f7wa: �re Y yy nV r South Atlantic -Gulf W��aw4iiww2n 14�uww�Ymrh lgvull D a nV "frArpm4o w 41 �$ r" G��r9rio2w. �n�wwurxv9f (f9w;i Figure 3.13. Projected changes in storm intensity and frequency, Florida Panhandle. The top row is the 3 -hour storm. The bottom row is the 24 -hour storm. The columns correspond to three different locations in the study area. Blue lines are future GCM projections. Red lines are the historical baseline (1970 — 1999). (Wang et al., 2013a). Key point: Reasonable consensus exiA5 in the literature that the intensity crud frequency of extrenae storm events will zncrea5e in the future fors the South Adantzc- Gudf'Regzon. Low consensus exiA5 with respect to projected changes in total annual precipitation fors the region. 3.3. Hydrology A number of global and national scale studies have attempted to project future changes in hydrology, relying primarily on a combination of GCMs and macro -scale hydrologic models. These studies include projections of potential hydrologic changes in the South Atlantic -Gulf Region. Thomson et al. (2005) applied two GCMs, across a range of varying input assumptions, in combination with the macro -scale Hydrologic Unit Model to quantify potential changes in water yield across the United States. Results are presented for both continuous spatial profiles across the country (Figure 3.14) and for individual HUCs. For the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, contradictory results are generated by the two GCMs. For the same set of input assumptions, one model predicts significant decreases in water yield, the other projects significant increases in water yield. USACE Institute for Water Resources 30 January 9, 2015 I NU.www.Vry IpWfwf (W r n Jxw �rrr sdl Y� u iur u N �I(w IC CJI; I(� I +D" T19 Rofisfrt New wr9 4Ya rw7aa;9Yla!wmYwrrr 40, r,, rnr fw %' Yry' Ik +Vw w u r �nawwn�w �? YJ � r 92,7, to, 3 i V ar+ rt��ouwa�N�� 1 Rw(fuvru ' wZ� M,,wwiN xw Mppmymw 0"6 P21awwUicNwan � �a�,wmadtl �;�o'� YFru9wk`rOw1 AaryfRllW a s,wx 3f�1 f7wa: �re Y yy nV r South Atlantic -Gulf W��aw4iiww2n 14�uww�Ymrh lgvull D a nV "frArpm4o w 41 �$ r" G��r9rio2w. �n�wwurxv9f (f9w;i Figure 3.13. Projected changes in storm intensity and frequency, Florida Panhandle. The top row is the 3 -hour storm. The bottom row is the 24 -hour storm. The columns correspond to three different locations in the study area. Blue lines are future GCM projections. Red lines are the historical baseline (1970 — 1999). (Wang et al., 2013a). Key point: Reasonable consensus exiA5 in the literature that the intensity crud frequency of extrenae storm events will zncrea5e in the future fors the South Adantzc- Gudf'Regzon. Low consensus exiA5 with respect to projected changes in total annual precipitation fors the region. 3.3. Hydrology A number of global and national scale studies have attempted to project future changes in hydrology, relying primarily on a combination of GCMs and macro -scale hydrologic models. These studies include projections of potential hydrologic changes in the South Atlantic -Gulf Region. Thomson et al. (2005) applied two GCMs, across a range of varying input assumptions, in combination with the macro -scale Hydrologic Unit Model to quantify potential changes in water yield across the United States. Results are presented for both continuous spatial profiles across the country (Figure 3.14) and for individual HUCs. For the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, contradictory results are generated by the two GCMs. For the same set of input assumptions, one model predicts significant decreases in water yield, the other projects significant increases in water yield. USACE Institute for Water Resources 30 January 9, 2015