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Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 South Atlantic -Gulf 3.8). Smaller increases, or even slight decreases, are projected for the other seasons. However, the authors also project increases in the severity of future droughts for the region, as projected temperature and ET impacts outweigh the increases in precipitation. The study by Jayakody et al. (2013) on the Upper Pearl River watershed (Mississippi) revealed a low consensus on precipitation change projections for their three GCMs and more focused study region. There was, however, general consensus across their three sets of GCM projections of overall dryer summers for their future planning horizons, compared to historical baseline. These results appear to mildly disagree with those presented by Liu et al. (2013). M M M M Figure 3.8. Projected changes in seasonal precipitation, 2055 vs. 1985, mm. The South Atlantic -Gulf Region is within the yellow oval (Liu et al., 2013). More regionally, Wang et al. (2013b) present a study focused on the Wolf Bay watershed in southern Alabama. Results from this study highlight the uncertainty in climate model precipitation projections (Figure 3.9). Projected changes in annual precipitation (2016 — 2040), compared to historical baseline (1984 — 2008), range from an approximate 5% decrease to a 10% increase, across an ensemble of four GCMs applied for different assumed greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Seasonally, results show an increase in fall precipitation for nearly all scenarios, while results are mixed for other seasons. Model uncertainty is also apparent in the results presented by Bastola (2013). For grid cells located primarily in Florida and Georgia, projected changes in seasonal precipitation in the 2070s, compared to historical baseline, range from a 50% increase to a 50% decrease across a large range of GCMs and emissions and concentration pathway scenarios. The median projected changes appear to be in the -10% to +10% range. Similarly, Qi et al. (2009) present two differing GCM projections for their coastal North Carolina watershed (Figure 3.10). One projects an approximate 15% increase in precipitation by the end of the 21" century, while the other projects an approximate 20% decrease. USACE Institute for Water Resources 26 January 9, 2015