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Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 South Atlantic -Gulf Gao et al. (2012) focus on future extreme climate events in the eastern U.S., as forecast by GCMs. They applied a single GCM downscaled to a high resolution grid (4 km x 4 km) that included the entire South Atlantic -Gulf Region and a single planning horizon centered on 2058. A single representative concentration pathway was simulated, representative of intensive future fossil fuel use and high greenhouse gas emissions. Results (Figure 3.5) show projected increases in heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency for the study region. Extreme heat wave temperatures are projected to increase by up to 4 °C in the South Atlantic -Gulf Region and the frequency of heat waves is projected to increase by 2 to 7 days per year, compared to the baseline period (2001 — 2004). Heat wave durations are also predicted to increase for most of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, by up to 4 days per event. a) Intensity ( °C) b) Duration (days /event) c) Frequency (events /year) A 4 A Figure 3.5. GCM Projections of heat wave patterns in eastern USA (intensity, duration, frequency) for a 2058 planning horizon (compared to 2002 baseline); first column = baseline, second column = future, third column = difference between the two. The South Atlantic -Gulf Region is within the black oval (Gao et al., 2012). The third NCA report (Carter et al., 2014) generally supports the findings presented above. Climate model projections for the southeast region of the U.S. presented in this report indicate a sharp, and statistically significant, increase in both annual average temperature and the number of extreme heat days over the next century (Figure 3.6). Additionally, projections are presented showing a decrease in the number of nights below freezing (Figure 3.7). USACE Institute for Water Resources 24 January 9, 2015